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End of the Covid 19 pandemic finally in sight? Virologist with a positive prognosis

2020-03-24T09:45:51.747Z


Many hope that the novel pathogen Sars-CoV-2 will lose activity due to warm temperatures. A virologist explains whether outside temperatures affect the coronavirus.


Many hope that the novel pathogen Sars-CoV-2 will lose activity due to warm temperatures. A virologist explains whether outside temperatures affect the coronavirus.

Update from March 24th, 2020 : Due to the rapid increase in coronavirus infections in Germany, Chancellor Angela Merkel announced on March 22nd, 2020 that there are now strict exit restrictions all over Germany to allow the spread of the new lung disease Covid-19 slow it down. Meetings of more than two people have been prohibited since Monday * and citizens are encouraged to stay at home. An important step, according to virologist Alexander Kekulé, director at the Institute for Medical Microbiology at the University of Halle. He said on Deutschlandfunk that it was almost impossible that, given such extreme measures, it would not be possible to "significantly decrease" the numbers.

Article from March 20, 2020: Different forecasts about the course of the Covid-19 pandemic

The outbreak of the novel lung disease Covid-19 is currently the predominant topic worldwide. The corona virus has been spreading since the end of 2019. The coronavirus-induced lung disease Covid-19 had broken out in the province of Hubei, a region in the interior of central China. The metropolis of Wuhan located in it is still one of the high-risk areas to be avoided.

Initially classified as an epidemic, the World Health Organization declared Covid-19 a pandemic in March 2020 - a country-wide epidemic. The virus is now spreading globally, and almost every country reports coronavirus infections. Worldwide, the Coronavirus Resource Center of Johns Hopkins University has 382,644 Covid-19 cases, 16,587 deaths are reported (as of March 24, 2020). 101,898 people are currently classified as fully recovered.

However, new cases in Germany are worrying citizens. So far, 29,056 patients have been counted nationwide, 123 people have died of the consequences of the infection. The prognoses about the further course of the Covid 19 pandemic are different. A US publication has recently disproved that warmer temperatures could slow the spread of the virus * . Researchers had calculated how the Sars-CoV-2 transmission could develop by 2025.

More on the subject : Covid-19: Germany reports low death rate - people who have already been cured are probably immune .

Covid-19: Rising temperatures hardly slow down the spread

Based on the model calculation from the USA, it can be seen that the epidemic will not slow down as expected in spring and summer, the medical journal Dr. Christian Drosten, Director of the Institute of Virology at Charité University Medicine Berlin. A study from China have shown alleging Aerzteblatt that seasonal climate variations are not significantly slow down the transmission of the new virus SARS-CoV-2.

Humidity in particular plays an important role in the spread of many viruses. For example, moist air inactivates flu viruses *: These have a harder time in summer because the humidity rises in the warm months. The reason for this is the outside temperature: cold air can store moisture less well than warm air . According to the current state of knowledge, coronaviruses are unimpressed: "We have to reckon that we will run straight into an epidemic wave despite the rising temperatures. The seasonal effect was not as great as with other cold viruses", the medical journal Virologe Drosten quotes on the 9th. March. Two days later, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the new disease a pandemic.

Read also : If you suspect Corona, not to the doctor: How to behave correctly .

Virologist makes prognosis: More and more coronavirus infections by summer

Virologist Christian Drosten gives a daily assessment of the situation in the corona virus podcast of the Norddeutscher Rundfunk. With regard to further development, he expects a continuous wave of infections that will reach its maximum in the period from June to August . In summer, a large part of the population will have been infected with the virus *, according to the expert in the NDR podcast. This should result in extensive immunity. However, the goal is to keep this wave of infection away from the older population. Young people with previous illnesses also belong to the risk group, for whom an infection can have life-threatening consequences.

Sources : www.medrxiv.org; www.aerzteblatt.de; www.pharmolekische-zeitung.de; www.coronavirus.jhu.edu; www.ndr.de

Read more : Coronavirus: Do you belong to the risk group? That's the average age of COVID-19 patients.

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* Merkur.de and fnp.de belong to the Germany-wide Ippen-Digital editors network .

Source: merkur

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