No doubt closer to reality. While the number of patients tested positive is officially only 25,000 since the start of the epidemic, at least 40,000 "new cases of Covid-19" were diagnosed by general practitioners last week, according to estimates by Health Public France.
"It is estimated that 41,836 new cases of COVID-19 […] consulted a general practitioner" from March 16 to 22 in mainland France, said the health agency, based in particular on figures from the Sentinelles surveillance network.
This figure cannot be compared with the previous weeks, this specific surveillance having been set up on March 17, specifies the weekly epidemiological assessment of Public Health France. The regions most concerned are Ile-de-France, Grand-Est and Pays de la Loire.
No wonder finding different numbers
On the other hand, still in ambulatory medicine, "the SOS Doctors associations have reported 9,136 acts for suspected COVID-19", or 15% of their activity. A figure in clear increase compared to the previous week (2304 acts).
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Laboratory tests being carried out mainly on hospitalized patients and carers, it is not surprising that the number of cases diagnosed is much higher than the number of cases tested positive (25,233 since the beginning of the epidemic).
The epidemiological assessment of Public Health France, stopped on March 24, gives on the other hand details on the patients in intensive care and the dead. Thus, 68% of patients admitted to intensive care presented comorbidities (other pathologies) and 62% were over 65 years of age. For deaths, 57% had comorbidities and 93% were over 65 years of age.
Lots of regional disparities
While the latest official report Wednesday of 1331 deaths relates only to hospital deaths, Public Health France has also started to analyze the data from the declarations of death of 3000 municipalities which account for 77% of national mortality.
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During the week of March 9 to 15, "all-cause mortality at the national level remains comparable to the mortality expected during this period", but the figure hides regional disparities. Thus, an increase in mortality, mainly in people over 65, was observed in the Haut-Rhin (estimate of an excess of + 75% over expected mortality, according to provisional data), Oise (+ 40%), Vosges (+ 35%) and Alpes-de-Haute-Provence (+ 65%).
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This excess mortality is "probably linked to the COVID-19 epidemic, without it being possible to estimate the part attributable to this date", indicates Public Health France. Due to the "delays" in transmission by the civil status offices, the data are "incomplete" and "the excess mortality estimates observed are therefore minimum values likely to increase in the coming weeks".
