As the pandemic accelerates in Europe, the results become daily more deadly for Italy, Spain and France. While no European country has been spared from the spread of the coronavirus, some seem to be much less affected by the figures. Among them, Portugal, yet a neighbor of Spain on the verge of suffocation.
Lisbon has, to date, 140 deaths and 7,443 officially declared cases, against… 8,189 deaths and 94,417 confirmed cases in Spain. A surprising observation given the curves, but which deserves to be nuanced.
"There is no Portuguese mystery," says Cécile Gonçalves, doctor of political studies at the School of Advanced Studies in Social Sciences (EHESS), specialist in contemporary Portuguese history. "By reporting the figures of deaths compared to the number of contaminations, we see that the mortality rate rises to 2% in Portugal, it is therefore false to claim that the country would be spared", insists the researcher.
"Neither a miracle nor an exception"
As a reminder, Spain has 46.6 million inhabitants, more than four times the population of Portugal. “The figures may seem lower (vis-à-vis Spain, Editor's note) but they deserve to be taken with tweezers. Especially since there is no massive population test in Portugal, ”adds the researcher.
If the Portuguese situation is "neither an exception nor a miracle", some data can however explain the difference in the number of contaminations with its Spanish neighbor, said Yves Léonard, teacher at Sciences Po and specialist in the country. “There is already the geographic argument. Portugal is a peninsular country, the only border of which is Spain ”. A feature that facilitates the control of entries into the country.
Seeing its Spanish neighbor collapsing under contamination, Portugal has also shown "anticipation and extreme vigilance", emphasizes the historian. The authorities quickly implemented the first containment measures and closed the border to tourists, as of March 15. A firm decision, even when the epidemic had killed "only" one in the country.
"Tighter police checks"
Then, a state of emergency was declared three days later. "During an exceptional period, an exceptional decision," said Portuguese President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, during a televised address. And for good reason: "Such a measure had not been taken since the advent of democracy, after the fall of the dictatorship in 1974," notes the teacher.
From March 20, the government led by Socialist Prime Minister Antonio Costa implements, by decree, strict containment measures. Schools and universities are now closed until April 9. Non-essential businesses and restaurants have lowered their blinds and the population is ordered to stay at home. Only a few rare trips are allowed to go shopping.
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“Police checks are much stricter in Portugal than here. And only undiagnosed people can leave their homes, ”notes Cécile Gonçalves.
A challenge for tourism
Another hypothesis raised explaining this difference, the exemplarity of the power in place. Because President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa has imposed himself on the quarantine since March 8. "A strong gesture, which may have had an influence on public opinion," said Yves Léonard.
Finally, the authorities were quick to act because "they knew very well that the risk for the country was potentially very high," he added. On the one hand, because its economy is largely based on tourism. The government would thus have chosen to take important measures from the start, in order to get out of containment as quickly as possible, according to the historian.
The other issue is obviously health. The country has anticipated, wanting to avoid at all costs a dramatic Spanish scenario with overcrowded hospitals. After the 2008 crisis, the country experienced years of austerity. Budget cuts that have affected health services and which the country "unfortunately retains consequences", analyzes Yves Léonard.
A peak expected at the end of April
As in France, Portugal suffers from important “medical deserts”, adds Cécile Gonçalves. “There is a shortage of hospitals and doctors in the north of the country. This is problematic because it is where the oldest population is concentrated, and therefore the most vulnerable to the virus. This region alone accounts for 38% of cases, ”adds the researcher.
If Portugal seems to have taken a few weeks ahead of its European neighbors, the country would therefore be wrong to declare victory too quickly. Portuguese Health Minister Marta Temido announced that the peak of contamination would be reached in late April. “Portugal currently has 1,200 fans available. The government has ordered 500 more but will that be enough? Time is running out, ”concludes Yves Léonard.