His most ferocious detractors call him Nostradamus in a white coat. They probably did not think so well. Because in 2003, Professor Didier Raoult made a prescient report to the Ministry of Health in which he already warned against "the risk of the appearance of mutants of respiratory viruses, in particular the flu". A phenomenon that the infectious disease specialist then considered to be "the most formidable" among the emerging diseases.
In this 372-page document given to the Minister of Health at the time, Jean-François Mattei, and essentially devoted to the risks of bioterrorism, the Marseille doctor wrote a whole chapter on "new contagious diseases". “A new influenza mutant appeared in 1999 in Hong Kong. This avian virus, frequently fatal, could quickly be controlled but the next influenza mutant might not be, warns the specialist. The epidemic risk of diseases transmitted by respiratory route is extremely important, because of the densification of the human population. "
Pointing to the promiscuity of the population in megacities and the exponential number of air travel, the doctor believes that the "pooling of a virus transmissible by respiratory route" would be "extremely fast". “This type of event, the brutal mutation then the introduction of a virus of animal origin into the human world, are rare, chaotic events but which can have extremely rapid and extremely dangerous consequences. "
He also warns the "rich countries" who consider themselves safe from these emerging viruses. “The difference in development that is widening between the richest and the poorest countries gives hope for the richest that the diseases of the poorest will remain confined to the Third World. In the case of contagious diseases, this is not likely. The human species is unique, microorganisms move and any emergence of a new pathogen in any country of the world will allow it a rapid extension without any control being possible at the borders. "
These words resonate today with all the more acuteness as this scenario occurs precisely as Didier Raoult announced. Including when he points to the country's unpreparedness for this epidemic risk and then proposes the creation of "infectiopoles", in the same way as genopoles or canceropoles, which "should affect Lyon, Marseille, Lille, Bordeaux, Montpellier and maybe Toulouse ”. A request remained a dead letter. Contacted on Tuesday, Didier Raoult sighs when asked why his proposals have not had an echo with the authorities.
"I preached in the desert"
"At the time, I preached in the desert and had the unpleasant impression that I was taken for a fool but I finally managed to build in Marseille the infectious disease center that I advised to do". The Minister of Health at the time, Jean-François Mattei, remembers very well the report that Didier Raoult had given him: "It fell right in the heart of the heat wave of 2003, which blocked certain health decisions, testifies the one who is now a member of the Academy of Medicine. It is clear that Didier Raoult's report has gone into the background. "
The Marseille researcher, aware in 2003 that France was lagging behind in the management of these emerging epidemics, argued that "the surveillance of infectious diseases" be "amplified". "Our preparation for these chaotic events is weak," he says in this 17-year-old report.
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“Information campaigns must be carried out with the public, but also with nursing staff, on the basic notions of hygiene in order to revive hand cleaning in hospitals, the wearing of masks, the isolation of contagious patients ", He says. So many barrier gestures which today seem vital to protect us from the Covid-19.
Didier Raoult goes even further. According to him, "infectious diseases and their prevention must be included in school, college and high school programs". All in all, he notes disappointed, "the country has shown in recent years a limited capacity to manage infectious problems, which means that it is one of the least prepared for a problem of massive epidemic". But at the time, Didier Raoult had few illusions about the follow-up to be given to his report. Who will be, as he himself entrusts to us, "buried".
"I agree with myself"
What does the rereading of this alarmist report inspire in him today? "I agree with myself," answers the half-ironic half-bravery the researcher. Already in 2003, he knew that the warning he was issuing then was unlikely to be heard. "The era does not lend itself to predicting catastrophic events (Cassandre is always ridiculous! He wrote). The social needs relayed by the press are immediate needs; they respond to spontaneous fears that are quickly driven away by other fears or worries. "
Under these conditions, lucidly recognizes the researcher, "setting up a system which makes it possible to avoid the dramatic consequences of improbable and long-term events is extremely difficult". Aware that it is sometimes pointless to be right too early, Didier Raoult thinks that his warnings will no doubt only raise "in the press extremely negative comments denouncing catastrophism, paranoia, even waste".
“However, he concludes, the cost of emergency reactions is much higher than that of prevention. Seventeen years after this report with prophetic overtones, we measure more than ever today the magnitude of this human, economic and social "cost".