While Europe is exhausted every day in its fight against the Covid-19, Asia thought it could raise its head. But has she been too optimistic? In recent weeks, several countries (China, Japan, Taiwan) or territories (Hong Kong, Singapore) have faced a daily resurgence of virus contamination.
China reported 353 new cases on April 17, compared to 34 on April 3. Similarly, Malaysia had 185 new infections on Sunday while there were only twenty on March 15. Same observation for Thailand, although less affected by the epidemic, which counted Sunday 22 new cases against ... 2 only on March 10.
Finally, the city-state of Singapore recorded 1,426 new cases on Monday, a record number, while it only had a fortnight on March 15.
If the figures show an obvious increase, can we speak of a second wave? "No, because even if we observe epidemic outbreaks like in China, this is not necessarily comparable with what we have already experienced", nuance Antoine Bondaz, researcher at the Foundation for Strategic Research. “Nevertheless, many countries, including those cited as models in their management of the epidemic like South Korea, fear these outbreaks. "
"The scenario of a new Wuhan to avoid"
Several Asian states fear an epidemic peak caused by asymptomatic people under the radar. “If we don't spot them early enough, we run the risk of seeing the virus spread very quickly. Especially in those areas where the population density is considerable, ”adds the expert. Another worrying hypothesis for the authorities: the barrier measures could be less respected over time. "Since there are fewer cases identified, many people can imagine that we can resume a normal life and therefore stop these gestures that save us," analyzes the expert.
If the contaminations have slowed in China since the beginning of April, the country counts every day no less than a dozen new cases on its soil. Above all, two new outbreaks have appeared: the province of Guangdong (Canton) bordering Hong Kong and that of Heilongjiang located on the Russian border. The province's capital, Harbin, which has more than 10 million inhabitants, has seen an increase in imported cases, mainly due to the return of Chinese travelers to the country after a stay in Russia. "It is also easier to enter the country illegally with land borders," notes the specialist.
Populations so far excluded from testing in Singapore
Wanting to "avoid at all costs the scenario of a new Wuhan", the regime on Wednesday prohibited the entry of people and vehicles from outside the metropolis. Finally, people entering residential areas must undergo a temperature control and wear a mask. Heilongjiang has even promised financial rewards to anyone who helps catch illegal immigrants from abroad.
China is not the only one to redouble its efforts in its fight against the Covid-19. The city-state of Singapore extended the confinement imposed by the beginning of April until the beginning of June by one month. Because despite the closing of its borders, the territory saw its number of contaminations multiplied by ten, going from 142 cases on April 8… to 1,426 last Monday. "Three-quarters of these new cases involve migrant workers, living in overcrowded habitats and conducive to the spread of the virus," says Antoine Bondaz.
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Until now, this population had been excluded from the containment strategy developed by the country. “An unfortunate oversight, because if we want a prevention policy to be effective, it must apply to everyone. Having papers or not is not the issue. ” More than a second wave strictly speaking, Singapore would therefore see its first wave of contamination increase.
Relaxation of barrier measures in Japan
Same observation in Japan. Because if the archipelago had only fifteen cases on March 1, it counted Sunday ... more than 500. "The Japanese media have been talking about a 'second wave' for three weeks, even if it looks more like an acceleration “, Underlines Jean-François Heimburger, journalist and researcher specialist of Japan. According to him, the changeover took place after Friday, March 20. “It was a holiday that marks the start of the spring equinox. During the following weekend, the Japanese traditionally meet, go to see the cherry blossoms, etc. There has therefore been a relaxation of the barrier gestures ”.
With more than 11,500 cases, Japan now has the highest number of cases in Asia after China. However, if the archipelago is subject to a state of emergency, nothing formally obliges the Japanese to remain confined to their homes. However, they are called upon to practice teleworking and to drastically reduce their contacts. "Japan is undoubtedly still marked by the legacy of its regime which severely oppressed individual freedoms until the 1960s. Confinement is therefore not allowed by law", says Jean-François Heimburger
What if contamination continues to increase? "The government will change its strategy, by carrying out more tests as it has already started to do, but confinement will be difficult to envisage," concludes the researcher.
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