05/07/2020 - 16:51
- Clarín.com
- Society
There is good news for this winter. Or at least for its startup. The National Meteorological Service (SMN) indicates in its quarterly forecast - for the months of May, June and July - that much of the country could have higher temperatures than usual for this time. Although there is no evidence as to whether this will influence the "peak" of the coronavirus pandemic.
“It does not mean that we are going to be muscular as if it were summer. It means that the temperatures are going to be from normal to above those that are typical for the end of autumn and the beginning of winter, which are low temperatures ”, clarifies Cindy Fernández, diffuser of the SMN, in dialogue with Clarín .
"It will be cold, but a season is expected that is possibly more benevolent than other years, " stresses the meteorologist.
This would happen, above all, in the west and south of the country . "In this area, mainly, an autumn closure and the beginning of winter are expected with normal or higher than normal temperatures," says Fernández.
The panorama is the same - although with less probability - for the east of the province of Buenos Aires . "There is a slight sign that it can occur with normal to higher than normal temperatures," explains the meteorologist.
This includes the City , where the usual for this quarter - May, June and July - is that there are minimums of 8 ° and maximums of 16 °. This year, we could be above that average.
On the other hand, temperatures are expected to be within normal range on the north of the Litoral, west of Santa Fe, south of Santiago del Estero and Córdoba.
Winter in Ushuaia (Archive / Andres D'Elia).
On the north of the country, south of the Litoral, west of Buenos Aires and center-east of La Pampa there is no clear sign of what will happen. In these cases, the agency recommends closely following the weekly forecasts.
Now, are low temperatures expected to influence the peak of the coronavirus pandemic ? And the fact that extreme cold is not expected, could it be considered good news?
"So far there is insufficient evidence that Covid-19 is behaving in a way that responds to weather conditions. There are several works done, but so far none are conclusive, "replies Fernández.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the World Health Organization (WHO) released press releases reporting that there is no evidence and that, therefore, studies linking heat to fewer cases of coronavirus or cold cannot be trusted. with increased infection.
There is no evidence that cold increases Covid-19 (EFE) cases.
“It is a fairly new virus, which has not yet completed a full one-year cycle. So, it is very difficult to determine if it has a behavior that responds to temperature changes. Because it has not gone through all the changes yet ”, explains the meteorologist.
By studying different viruses - not the coronavirus, but others that they could analyze for more than a year - both the WMO and the WHO determined that changes in the behavior of the population, when temperatures are low, favor the spread. For example, during winter, we tend to be more crowded, longer locked, and we do not ventilate the rooms.
"These changes in the behavior of the population are what favor the spread of viruses in general . It is a matter of human behavior: we have a greater number of attitudes that favor contagion, "says the meteorologist, clarifying that this has not yet been studied for Covid-19.
In the same vein, the pulmonologist Gabriela Claudia Tabaj, head of the Teaching and Research Room of the A. Cetrángolo Hospital, explains to Clarín that when it is cold we ventilate the environments less and are generally more grouped, which promotes respiratory viruses. spread more easily.
“During the winter we are more prone to contract a respiratory virus, since the cold alters to some extent the local defense mechanisms; in addition the cold climate favors the viral circulation and the confinement facilitates the interhuman contagion ”, indicates.
Winter in Aconcagua National Park (File / Delfo Rodriguez).
However, Tabaj clarifies that " the COVID-19 virus can be transmitted in any area , including those with a hot and humid climate." For this reason, he stresses that "regardless of the climatic conditions", protective measures must be adopted.
"The best way to protect yourself against COVID-19 is to wash your hands frequently. In this way, viruses that may be on the hands are eliminated and the infection that could be produced by touching the eyes, mouth and nose is avoided ”, recalls the pulmonologist.