It's not so often in recent weeks that the news is good! And so much the better, because it is only because the health situation has greatly improved that Prime Minister Edouard Philippe initiated this Thursday, May 28, the return to (almost) normal life.
With the exception of the capital region and two departments, Mayotte and Guyana, France now sees life in green. And yet we have to be careful.
Propagation under control but closely monitored
Not only is the speed of spread of the Covid-19 virus under control, but it has even evolved "a little better than expected", in the words of the Prime Minister. "This is due to containment measures and probably also to a natural phenomenon which means that the virus seems, for the moment, not to start on its own", analyzes Frédéric Adnet, chief of emergency at the Avicenne hospital in Bobigny (Seine-Saint-Denis).
To verify that it does not ignite again and come to saturate hospitals that are catching their breath, the SARS-CoV-2 will be scrutinized. This Thursday, Olivier Véran, the Minister of Health, presented four indicators, applied territory by territory. The first, "incidence", which he also calls "epidemic pressure". Clearly, if, in a week, more than 10 people per 100,000 inhabitants are infected with the new coronavirus, we redouble our vigilance. If it is more than 50, the alarm signal must be drawn.
In addition to this threshold, modeled on that of Germany, France will look to see if the rate of positive virological tests does not start going up again and if the "R0", indicating our probability of infecting other people, remains much lower to 1. Finally, the number of patients hospitalized should not be too high. How ? “When there are more than 60% of patients who are in intensive care because of the coronavirus, explains Véran, we consider that the alert threshold is exceeded. "
The exception of Ile-de-France
In Val-d'Oise, the Samu whom she directs transports around fifty patients with suspected Covid every day. "The situation is stable, upper limit," summarizes Dr. Agnès Ricard-Hibon. According to the regional health agency (ARS), the famous new "incidence" is in this department of 14, so too high.
Its particular situation thus makes Val-d'Oise "a notable exception" to the government's green indicators. The rate of positivity in PCR tests remains high (4.7% against 2.33% for the whole of Ile-de-France and 1.9% at the national level).
Newsletter - The essentials of the news
Every morning, the news seen by Le ParisienI'm registering
Your email address is collected by Le Parisien to allow you to receive our news and commercial offers. Find out more
As in Mayotte or Guyana, the virus circulates here faster than elsewhere. In a country now entirely green, only these two overseas departments and the Ile-de-France region are orange and therefore subject to more stringent rules such as the opening of bars and restaurants only on the terrace.
But why have you classified the entire Ile-de-France region in this way? According to the ARS, more than half of the 1,200 beds are still occupied by Covid patients. “The population density is high there and the inhabitants must take, on journeys of sometimes 45 minutes or more, public transport. Increased surveillance throughout the territory seems to me justified, ”decrypts epidemiologist Dominique Costagliola.
But for emergency physician Frédéric Adnet, this decision is not understandable: “In my hospital in Seine-Saint-Denis, I haven't seen a single Covid in three days! Out of 600 beds, 16 are occupied by infected patients. For me, it's light green! I think the government is scared because the system almost collapsed because of the places in intensive care. He is playing too careful. "
Elsewhere, has the virus gone?
"Not at all," replies Dominique Costagliola, who is also director of research at Inserm (National Institute of Health and Medical Research). It is completely normal to loosen the vice, to resume activities across the country. But beware, the virus is still circulating. It is there, and will shoot up if we behave the same way as before February, without barrier measures, "she warns.
It relies on screening tests which make it possible to isolate new patients and to warn the people with whom they have been in contact. "Today, we have the means to test and control," she says. Olivier Véran confirmed it: "there is no saturation in tests", even if sometimes their results are slow to arrive. Note that now, "the wearing of a mask is widely recommended" by the government.
