Pablo Sigal
06/01/2020 - 12:04
- Clarín.com
- Society
There are three figures on the coronavirus in Argentina that the Ministry of Health reports every day, at the beginning of the crisis they were given more relevance in the titles of the daily information and over time they came to occupy marginal places. Today they are hardly paid any attention, but if the focus is put back there they can serve as keys to explain why even today, 90 days after the first Covid-19 contagion in the country was known, the local pandemic continues contained .
It could be plotted like this: when the Italians sat in their seats, the movie was already started and they didn't understand anything. When the Argentines arrived at the cinema, it was still several minutes before the show began. Those different initial scenarios, which were already explained in a timely manner, were the determining factors so that in that and other European countries there would be many infected and dead in a short time , while in Latin America the wave was seen to come and one could be better prepared.
The relationship between the three figures in question has to do precisely with that situation. During a large part of these first 90 days of pandemic in Argentina, the number of imported cases represented the majority of those infected in the country. They were people who came who came mainly from Italy and Spain. A short time later, the United States would be added as a dangerous place of origin.
With that first number, that of imported cases, over the days two other ones began to compete: those infected by close contacts and cases already considered to be of community circulation , which are those in which the chain of contagion.
A key date was April 14: for the first time, that day Argentina began to have more cases by close contact than imported: there were 833 who had come from abroad and represented 34.7 percent . While those who had been infected in the country but it was known from whom they were already 857 and represented 15.2 percent . The third figure, the most feared and the one that ultimately defines the severity of the scenario, is that of cases of community circulation : at that time they were just 393 and represented 15.2 percent of the total.
If the time series is reviewed, it can be seen how this last figure grew over the weeks, although nevertheless it never came to dominate the equation . As of May 1, the number of cases of community circulation represented 25.9 percent of the total, but that of close contacts had climbed to 43 percent. Logically, with the closing of the borders, the number of imported cases was parked and occupied 20.7 percent of the pie.
A month later, and with a quarantine that exceeds 70 days in the City and the GBA, the number of cases added each day has been concentrated practically in these two districts. And this is where lies one of the keys by which the contagion curve has grown but in a controlled way : the number of Covid positives by close contact is still greater today than those of community circulation . There are in the first portion 7,308 infections (43.9%) and in the second 5,979 (35.5%). Imported cases are still asleep at 970.
To return to continental comparison, in much of Europe the number of cases of community circulation soared prematurely when they had not yet been able to identify to patient 0 . In Argentina, on the other hand, it is clear that the first contagion occurred on March 3 and was a man who came from Italy. From there, between record quarantines and focused tests, it was possible to continue isolating the infected people and their close contacts.
This has effectively allowed to flatten the curve and gain time, which is neither more nor less than the time it takes for a large number of Argentines to be locked up in their homes like experiment mice in a cage. The objective? That this master figure, which indicates the percentage of community circulation among the total number of cases, does not come to dominate the party . Or that it takes as long as possible to do so.
This reality is reflected in the figures of the daily parts that are usually given the most attention: between 600 and 700 cases per day . The same figures have held for ten days. And the big difference is that the cases began to concentrate in the metropolitan area.
But the key is in the number of deaths , which except for two days in which there were 23 and 24 throughout a single day, the rest of the days had smaller amounts. Two days ago, one of the lowest figures in recent weeks was recorded, with 8 deaths .
The death toll - all experts say - is the true measure of the pandemic . That is, the real measure of how infections are also growing, beyond one day more or less tests are done. The coronavirus mortality rate is one and although it is not yet known for sure because the pandemic is in full development, it exists .
The costs of having the beast tied up is high. Both economic and psychological . And not everything is black or white. There are always nuances. But the cost of having had the privilege of being able to see the film from the beginning and not being able to tell it in the end - if such a thing should happen - will surely be much higher.
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