Some are already talking about it in the past, as if the Covid-19 epidemic was definitely behind us. It is true that the figures are astonishing: according to the figures communicated in the evening, this Tuesday, June 9, 955 patients affected by the coronavirus were in intensive care in France, against 7148 on April 8, date of the worst day in intensive care. It was a record.
Almost a month after the start of deconfinement, on May 11, the curves are collapsing day by day, cutting the grass under the feet of the most pessimistic scientists. And yet, should we declare victory so quickly? Be careful, the weakened virus may not have said its last word.
In the world, "the peak is not yet reached"
If we look at the situation in France, "we could say that the story is coming to an end," exclaims the virologist Bruno Lina. "We did not expect such a significant slowdown of the virus," adds Anne-Claude Crémieux, her infectious disease colleague.
The rush to the hospital, the fear of running out of respirators, the coffins stored at the Rungis market (Val-de-Marne), lack of space in funeral homes, are all over. So many positive signs of an epidemic stopped in its mad rush .
"Wait, there are still still 30 to 60 daily deaths linked to Covid, nuance Professor Antoine Flahault, it is much more than for all infectious diseases or road accidents". The epidemiologist also notes the hundreds of new infections each day, not counting those that pass under test radars. The virus is there, at low noise, nestled in particular in 150 clusters, grouped cases, in France.
What if we zoom out? The picture is darker. From both America to South Africa, the pandemic is raging. “There have never been so many cases in the world, warns Bruno Lina. The epidemic peak has not yet been reached. "
"Postilions must be avoided at all costs"
For virologist Christine Rouzioux, no doubt, it is "clearly" containment that has had the greatest impact on the epidemic in France. In its latest report, the Scientific Council wrote it black and white: it reduced the transmission rate by almost 80%.
"Given the result, too bad the barrier measures were not introduced earlier," continues the expert. Even without a mask, we should have encouraged to put a bandana or handkerchief on the nose. Now that we have enough, they should be mandatory in public space. What should be avoided at all costs are the postillions! "
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Hand washing, sneezing in his elbow, physical distancing ... these new rules of life continue their way, integrated into our "collective memory", to use the words of the doctors.
The seasonal assumption
In addition to containment, more and more scientists are evoking a seasonality of SARS-CoV-2. The latter seems to pack up when the mercury rises in the temperate zones of the northern hemisphere. “It is not so much a question of cold or heat as of our behavior during these seasons, decrypts Professor Bruno Lina. In winter, we are more inside, on top of each other. Our immune defenses defend less well against the aggression of viruses, our nasal mucous membranes are drier and fatigue is more important. "
What is this seasonal assumption based on? “Based on the model of most respiratory viruses: influenza, bronchiolitis, and other bocaviruses. Each year, men take them from the northern hemisphere to the south. Yet the SARS of 2003, a cousin of the coronavirus, died where he was born: in China. "Not only has it not had global circulation, but its biological behavior is different: it is much less contagious," defends Bruno Lina.
Last but not least, according to Professor Anne-Claude Crémieux, “we have a real difficulty in understanding the natural evolution of epidemics. For example, we still don't know why the plague disappeared. In a few decades and the progress of research, our ignorance will seem prehistoric. "
Fear of the "second wave"
What happens next? "I am unable to predict, but not to prepare for it would be a mistake," warns epidemiologist Antoine Flahault. For scientists, fall sounds like a threat. “The summer brake can be partial, and by definition temporary. It can leave a few hundred cases spread over the territory. At the end of the summer, the virus will thus have all the latitude to leave. »Indeed, after settling in the countries of the South, the enemy could reoffend during its return journey to our regions.
"I don't imagine for a second that there is no second wave," says Bruno Lina. How big? I do not know if it will be light or very intense. But history is there to remind us, "more often than not, in flu pandemics, the second wave is more deadly than the first," observes Professor Flahault. “If you fall asleep too much in certain European countries, the backlash could be difficult. "