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Coronavirus: why the “reproduction number” is on the rise in several regions

2020-06-21T00:39:57.939Z


In Normandy, Auvergne Rhône-Alpes and Occitanie, the “reproduction number” has risen above 1 this week. Authorities


The beginnings of the dreaded and now famous "second wave"? Not necessarily, but a sign that we must remain more vigilant than ever, according to health authorities. The number of reproduction of the virus, the famous “R”, has risen above 1 in five regions, three of which are located in mainland France (Normandy, Occitania, Auvergne Rhône-Alpes, Guyana and Martinique), according to the latest weekly epidemiological bulletin of Public Health France made public Thursday, June 18. A week earlier, Provence Alpes Côte d'Azur was the only region in this case.

This "R" is calculated from the number of people tested positive. When it exceeds the value 1, it means that an infected person contaminates it, on average, more than another.

This Friday, the "R" even went to 1.6 in Normandy, according to the Directorate General of Health (DGS), ie above the alert threshold set at 1.5. It is a "very sensitive indicator" which "must be interpreted in the light of all the other indicators and feedback from the field available to us", underlines the DGS, joined by Le Parisien.

How to explain these increases? According to Public Health France, these values ​​greater than 1 "are linked to clusters under investigation", that is to say outbreaks of contamination with "at least three confirmed or probable cases, in a period seven days ". This is also indicated by the regional health authorities (ARS) in the three metropolitan regions we are talking about.

78 positive cases in an agricultural installation in the Gard

In Normandy, three new clusters have been detected in recent days: one in a family, the other in a company, and the third in an Ehpad. A total of 20 positive cases have already been detected there, in addition to the 65 patients identified in five other clusters since the beginning of June.

In Auvergne Rhône Alpes, Thursday evening, 34 people had tested positive within a family cluster in Ardèche, and 10 others were awaiting their results.

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In Occitania, it is in particular the cluster identified within an agricultural installation employing Spanish-speaking employees, in the Gard, which has greatly increased the "R". As of Friday, 78 positive cases had already been identified there. These potentially contagious people have been placed in solitary confinement, at home or in a hotel, says the ARS.

[#Coronavirus] In #Occitania, the # Covid19 virus is still circulating: 28 positive tests per day on average this week and another 105 people hospitalized. Together, let's maintain our good vigilance and protection reflexes!
📌RDV Tuesday for the next newsletter @ARS_OC. pic.twitter.com/0tmr2pEQAo

- ARS Occitanie (@ARS_OC) June 19, 2020

In total, 37 clusters were discovered between June 9 and 16, compared to 29 the previous week.

"Actual but controlled viral circulation"

Each time, the health authorities want to be reassuring in their press releases, while calling for increased vigilance. This evolution in the number of reproductions "reflects a real, but controlled viral circulation," according to ARS Normandie. "There is currently no sign of viral spread in the general population" in Occitania, also underlines Public Health France.

"This is not worrying because we identify positive cases as well as their contacts, it would be worrying if the R was high and we tested little," said Carole Dufouil, research director at Inserm and assistant director from the Bordeaux School of Public Health. After a kind of "ignition delay" in March and April, around 200,000 people are now tested each week in France. During the week of June 7 to 13, this concerned precisely 214,252 patients, including 2,827 who were positive (1.3%). The previous week, this positivity rate was 1.49%.

“Even if we are not immune to the fact that a positive case has been in contact with many other people (before being isolated), it is reassuring to see that we manage to test more people, including asymptomatic people, ”says Carole Dufouil.

Decrease in number of hospitalized patients

Not surprisingly, the dozens of positive cases recorded in clusters also lead to an increase in the positivity rate in these regions, since the total number of tests carried out is generally stable there from one week to another.

And the incidence rate, calculated from the number of positive tests reported to the population over the past week, is also increasing. Since June 1 st, while this rate has been falling continuously across France and in the two regions most affected by the epidemic (Ile-de-France and Grand Est), we observe that the curve is stable or even on the rise in the three metropolitan regions where the R has returned above the value 1. Nevertheless, this rate remains, each time, well below the alert threshold set at 10.

Another reassuring sign: the number of people hospitalized continues to drop in the three metropolitan regions we are talking about, as it does across France. On the other hand, Guyana, which we have known for several days that the health situation is particularly critical, sees the number of patients hospitalized on its soil increasing.

Source: leparis

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