Juliet Roffo
06/30/2020 - 16:23
- Clarín.com
- Society
48 coronavirus deaths in one day. Two an hour . That was the record reported by the Ministry of Health of the Nation in its report this Monday night. It is, for now, the highest number reported in Argentina since the first case was registered, on March 3. The previous peak had been 38 deaths on Wednesday, June 24.
" It is a fact to which we must pay attention, but that alone is not enough to draw conclusions. You have to see if it is a record isolated or a trend , and for that you must spend several days", says Clarin the infectious medicine doctor Daniel Stamboulian. And he adds: "The tightening of the quarantine in the AMBA will surely serve to slow down the rate of infections and this may have an impact on the number of deaths, but that takes time to see ."
The infectious medicine doctor Eduardo López assures: "You have to see the number of deaths for around fifteen days in a row . On average, a hospitalization for coronavirus in intensive care lasts between fifteen and twenty-one days. The evolution of these critical patients shows the number of the dead, and that's what you have to look at, but not an isolated day, but to see what the trend is like. "
"What you have to look at is the case fatality rate , that is, the percentage of deaths over the total number of cases. That in Argentina tends to drop , because cases grow at a faster rate than deaths . You also have to look the mortality rate , which is the number of deaths per million inhabitants of each country. That grows, because the number of people who lose their lives due to coronavirus increases, but it is kept on a record that has not yet shot up, "he adds. López.
According to the data of this Monday, when the 48 deaths in 24 hours brought to Argentina a total of 1,280 deaths out of a total of 62,268 cases of coronavirus, the case fatality rate stands at 2.06% . Two weeks ago, on June 15, 854 deaths were registered out of a total of 31,577 cases: the case-fatality rate was 2.70% . On June 1, the same rate was 3.19% . As López indicates, the case fatality rate tends to fall.
Is that between June 15 and this Monday the number of confirmed cases in Argentina grew 97% -practically doubled-, while the death toll grew by 49.8% . In that period of time, the average of new cases per day was 2,046 and the average of deaths was 30 people every 24 hours. Against that number, the 48 deaths on Monday represent a growth of 60%.
"We must put a lot of focus on the nursing homes , where around 27% of the deaths from coronavirus in the country are concentrated . It is important that compliance with the protocols is controlled there, and it is also true that when the transfers are seen on television mass of patients from these institutions, it stands out that there are many people in good health. But that is the photo, and then there is no follow-up on how many enter intensive care, which can be long and difficult to leave, especially if there are comorbidities, "López describes.
According to the infectologist who is part of the team that advises the Executive Branch, "special attention must also be paid to patients with comorbidities , because it costs more to stabilize them in intensive care." In Argentina, the most frequent pre-existing diseases among those who died of coronavirus , according to López, are high blood pressure, diabetes and obesity . "The risk of obesity was something we found on the go: China had not described it as a risk factor, but we discovered that it is. And in Argentina it is a very prevalent complication," adds López.
The figures of this Monday show that the death rate from coronavirus is 29.9 people per million inhabitants . It grew by 49.9% compared to the rate of June 15, when it was 19.4 people per million inhabitants. On June 1, the mortality rate was 12.63 people per million inhabitants: the growth between that day and June 15 was 53% . As in the case of the case fatality rate, mortality increases but the rate slows down.
It remains to be seen how the growing number of cases that are reported in Argentina every day will develop clinically. Meanwhile, every day dozens of families and groups of friends have to say goodbye to someone they love from a distance, without ceremonies, without hugs. A way to start mourning that is unlike anything we had been told that could serve to ease the pain.
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