Paula Galinsky
07/12/2020 - 15:40
- Clarín.com
- Society
The most favorable time for contagion of respiratory diseases is between the epidemiological weeks 25 and 28. That is, between mid-June and the first 10 days of July . This occurs in a typical year, in which the winter school break is used as a strategy to stop transmission. Especially from bronchiolitis, very common in children. The 2020, pandemic through, the story is another: we are starting the 29th week of the year, we should have already overcome the explosion of lung conditions and, nevertheless, the worst did not happen . The infectologists say that now there is "little left" for the famous coronavirus spike. July would be the month, they coincide.
“At AMBA we are still in a promotion phase. The results of the new restrictions will be seen in the coming days. We hope so, ” Teresa Varela, director of Epidemiological Surveillance and Outbreak Controls of the Province , points out to Clarín . “We are starting week 29 and the epidemiological situation has nothing to do with that of other years. We have very few respiratory infections in the winter time when we normally experience the peak, "he says.
He says that the cold has arrived and influences the spread of respiratory viruses . "Behaviors change: environments are no longer ventilated and, in addition, low temperatures create stress in the body," he warns. For this and the evolution of the pandemic in Argentina, he considers that the peak is near. " Our estimates place the peak in the second half of July . Likewise, the objective is to reach a large plateau and not a peak, "adds Varela and maintains that the most extreme situation should last between two and three weeks .
For this stage, Varela's recommendation is to stay home and isolate herself from mild symptoms such as a sore throat. "We must wait for the evolution of the condition and, if other signs are added, notify the health system. But it is key not to minimize the symptoms, even though every winter we have a sore throat. Because the virus that is circulating more strongly today is the coronavirus ”, he highlights.
Victims of the cold and the coronavirus: the homeless on the streets of Buenos Aires. .EFE / Juan Ignacio Roncoroni
It also recommends containing the older adults in the family, albeit with social distance. "It is time to accompany them because the emotional part is also relevant but from afar . That is the way to take care of them ”, he adds.
For Eduardo López, an infectologist at the Gutiérrez Hospital and a member of the expert committee that advises the President, "the cases will continue to increase, although July is likely to be the peak month ." "It can't take much longer," he says.
Regarding the reinforced quarantine in the City and the GBA, he explains that he seeks to “flatten the curve”. "The peak may be smearing a little from the latest measurements, but not too much."
And it coincides with Varela in the atypical of this year: "We have just passed the three weeks in which historically there is a higher incidence of viral infections and there is still a long way to go".
"Pandemic viruses displace or overshadow the rest. In fact, 90% of the swabs that are reaching Malbrán are from patients with Covid, ”he says. Quarantine, wearing masks and distancing "also influence and must be taken into account when interpreting changes compared to other winters."
In relation to epidemiological weeks and critical moments, Lautaro de Vedia, head of the Special Assistance Division of Intensive Care at Hospital Muñiz and former president of the Argentine Society of Infectious Diseases, says that it is not all that absolute. “There are years that it runs a bit. And, in addition, we are now facing a new virus and with many people without immunity, "he highlights.
The more than 3,600 infected per day that were recorded in the latest measurements marked the last significant rise. De Vedia relies on those data to say that cases "are still on the rise." According to him, "the peak is going to be arriving in the next 15 days . "
"We hope that by August the situation will become a little more stable. In the meantime, the advice is to respect quarantine, even more than before, ”he closes.
GS
