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Coronavirus in Argentina: ten reasons to suspect that this is the peak

2020-07-15T12:10:51.641Z


More deaths than new cases and a greater circulation of the virus than is recorded are some of the indications that lead us to believe that this week could be key.


Pablo Sigal

07/14/2020 - 7:01

  • Clarín.com
  • Society

A  four days of the decision to ease the quarantine data sheds the last month of circulation of the coronavirus serve to explain some reasons , beyond political and economic- by the authorities is taken believe it is time  to start to release the closure with caution. These are clues and, like everything in this pandemic, nothing is definitive.

One: July 6

On July 6 in Argentina all the alarms went off. For the first time, such a high number of deaths were recorded in just 24 hours. A total of 75: 16 in the morning part and 59, in the afternoon. It was Monday and there was speculation. That the provinces during the weekend take time to load the data and then it could be the drag of Saturday and Sunday. No one confirmed it.

Two: stabilization

Although the daily death toll did not return to that of a month ago, it did not follow an unstoppable escalation either . On Tuesday the 7th, the number for the day was 62 and the number for Wednesday dropped to 51. The death curve has an irregular behavior. As the total figure is not so high, any variation is very noticeable, such as that of the subsequent July 9, when it dropped to 26.

Three: historical marks

So far, there has never been a peak like that of July 6, but during the days of the hard quarantine, which began on July 1, the four highest historical marks already occurred in 24 hours. In addition to the aforementioned, on July 10 there were 54 deaths and this Monday, 58. That speaks of what happens at this precise moment with the pandemic: deaths are growing more than cases.

Four: official trust

Today's dead are the ones who got sick before the AMBA returned to phase 1, so the results of having tightened confinement should only start to be seen next week . That is to say, the deaths of this moment have to do with the relaxation of the controls that were before the urban stock returned. That would give the necessary confidence to the authorities to ease the quarantine again.

Five: the shape of the curve

The average of deaths during the 13 days of July was of 45 , whereas the one of the previous 13 days in June had been of 30. This is an increase of 50 percent . In the totals, 593 deaths against 396. The good news - if there is something that can be called this in this drama - is that it "grows down". Is this possible? The mortality rate continues to fall sharply. It was 1.94 last week and now, with 1,903 deaths out of 103,265 cases, it dropped to 1.84.

Six: less vulnerability

Based on the above, and although it may seem contradictory, even though deaths accelerate more than confirmed cases, in reality there are fewer and fewer coronavirus patients who die in Argentina. As the virus progresses at the AMBA, on average less vulnerable people are getting the virus.

Seven: natural acceleration

Since July 1, the number of deaths grew almost as much as the number of cases, which jumped 53 percent from the initial 67,197. In the past two weeks, at the start of the hard quarantine, while infections had increased 72 percent , deaths had risen 40 percent.

Eight: inertial effect

That there is a higher rise in deaths than in cases coincides with the authorities talking about the peak of the pandemic. Let's look at it this way: when the hill goes up, the number of cases increases every day. When it begins to drop, deaths have an inertia of their own that prevents them from being a correlate of the reduction in infections. The acceleration of deaths is precisely the consequence of the phenomenon.

Nine: least discarded

Coronavirus is not as deadly as it is contagious. As the tests progress, it is seen that there are contagious everywhere. Many more than those who record the daily parts. A fact that illustrates this: the average of suspected cases discarded on May 1 was 90 percent : for each confirmed case, 9 were discarded. This Monday, July 13, the average number of discarded cases settled at 65 percent .

Ten: more immunity

From the above it follows that there would be more immune people, and fewer in a position to infect . The same minister Fernán Quirós explained on Monday the calculation that for each confirmed positive case there are 10 that were not registered. And they probably never knew they had the virus. A large number of asymptomatic and mildly ill patients do not even go to the doctor. That inadvertent balance, silent but real, is the plus that completes the circle.

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Source: clarin

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