Are young people a future epidemiological “bomb”? Increasingly, they are at the center of warnings from the government and much of the medical community about the risk of a "second wave" of the Covid-19 pandemic. "I appeal to the youth to be vigilant", also urged the Minister of Health, Olivier Véran, in Le Parisien on July 25. And on August 5, the WHO asked them to "realize that they have a responsibility".
The numbers speak for themselves. The under 30s are the age category whose incidence rate (the number of cases per 100,000 inhabitants) over seven days is increasing the most in France.
Incidence rate close to the alert threshold
All ages combined, this rate fell from less than 5 in the middle of June to 17.3 in week 32, from August 3 to 9 (according to the most recent data from Public Health France). And among 20-29 year olds, it climbed to 44.7 in week 32, just below the alert threshold set at 50, while it was around 7 at the start of deconfinement. The situation is the same when we observe the positivity rate, that is to say the number of cases compared to that of tests carried out.
This finding can be explained by a desire for maximum decompression during this holiday period and after three months of confinement in the spring, as was also observed during the Fête de la musique on June 21. What Doctors Can Understand.
"Young people are living today after being placed in confinement for weeks due to an illness whose effects they have difficulty perceiving", judge Jean-Daniel Lelièvre, head of the infectious diseases department at Henri hospital -Mondor de Créteil (Val-de-Marne).
Several “clusters” have appeared after evenings with friends, family celebrations, or even in holiday centers. “Young people pay less attention. This is what we see in particular during festive and especially family gatherings at the origin of clusters ”, already indicated Olivier Véran at Le Parisien at the end of July.
No rebound on hospitalizations
Faced with this observation, Professor Caumes had outright suggested on August 1 in Le Parisien to "let young people be contaminated among themselves". A hypothesis to which many doctors had opposed their disagreement.
Newsletter - Most of the news
Every morning, the news seen by Le ParisienI'm registering
Your email address is collected by Le Parisien to enable you to receive our news and commercial offers. Learn more
"There is no reason to think that we could limit the epidemic to one age group without this having consequences on the others", judges today the epidemiologist Pascal Crepey, teacher researcher at the School of Advanced Studies in Public Health (EHESP). “The elderly and frail protect themselves and are surely more careful to respect the wearing of masks and distancing than the general population. However, they do not live alone and they have contact with their relatives, ”he adds.
For the moment, the number of people hospitalized or in intensive care remains globally stable, or even continues to decline slowly. This is explained by the fact that young people present "less risk of developing a serious form of the disease", underlines the General Directorate of Health.
Nevertheless, "they can help spread the virus and infect their relatives, parents, grandparents and fragile people, for whom the consequences can be serious," adds the DGS. We have also observed, among people over 80, a small rebound in the incidence rate since mid-July. "And these fragile people are not limited to the elderly, but also to obese and diabetics", adds Professor Lelièvre.
Beware of "stigma"
It is precisely to prevent the rebound in positive cases from being reflected in the coming days or weeks in the hospitalization curve that several experts call for continuing the “pedagogy” for young people. The Directorate General of Health urges them to "follow their contacts, activate the StopCovid application and respect all barrier measures".
Be careful, however, not to give the impression of "stigmatizing" them. “We are witnessing a kind of stigmatization: they have absolutely no monopoly on being in the streets, in bars, or even in festive gatherings. […] If there is a relaxation, they certainly do not have a monopoly ”, estimates the sociologist Olivier Cousin in L'Obs. “We are used to this kind of prevention message with HIV and tobacco. Above all, we must not point the finger at young people because it has never worked, ”said Jean-Daniel Lelièvre for his part.
Avoid re-containment
The risk, highlighted by sociologist Michel Wieviorka, would be that "the health issue would become a new source of conflict between generations". The priority, he tells the Parisian, is to avoid "going in the direction of the young against the old and asking who are paying and who are not paying the consequences [of the pandemic]" .
“Young people would be wrong to think that the Covid does not concern them. The purely health consequences mainly affect the others but those of pandemic control risk hitting them the hardest, ”Judge Pascal Crepey for his part. It alludes in particular to the possibility of local reconfinement, with its economic and social impact.
"Above all, avoid a backtracking, an important re-containment" is precisely what Prime Minister Jean Castex wants. "It is essential and it is within our reach", he indicated Tuesday.
VIDEO. Jean Castex: "The situation has deteriorated over the past few days"