If the data on the evolution of the coronavirus were presented to an expert in two blocks (from the beginning until June 21, entry into the new normal, and from that date until now), it would be difficult for him to identify that it is the same pathogen. Neither the age of those affected, nor the communities most impacted, nor the fatality caused have nothing to do with it. A change in the behavior of the covid that has been achieved by isolating those affected and keeping an eye on the suspects, which the recent increase in cases can reverse. The radical change in the most frequent indicators is analyzed below.
Lethality. The arrival of the new normal is accompanied by a change in the lethality of the virus. Measured as deaths per 100 patients diagnosed by CRP, on June 21 it was in Spain at 9.07. Almost two months later, that percentage has dropped to 0.31, a decrease of 96%. Taking into account that no mutations have been detected in the virus that justify this lower lethality, other factors must be used to explain the decline. The first, that more cases are diagnosed, which increases the denominator in the ratio of the fatality calculation (deaths / cases). The second, that the positives that are detected are less serious, probably because the average age of those affected has dropped. And there is a third factor to which groups such as Nomorepandemics, an analysis group from the Por Un Mundo Más Justo party, give great relevance: as the days of saturation of the health system have passed, it has been possible to give all those affected the best possible care, avoiding deaths due to the inability to treat everyone in the best conditions, as is suspected to have happened with those admitted to some nursing homes in communities such as Madrid, where they were prevented from being admitted to already saturated hospitals. This decrease in deaths caused by the coronavirus is well reflected in the Momo study of the Carlos III Health Institute, which since practically the second week of May - still in the middle of de-escalation - has not shown an excess of registered deaths compared to those expected according to the historical series of that period.
It is striking that fatality varies greatly between communities due to the set of factors mentioned above. During the pandemic (until June 21), it ranges from 6.71% in the Canary Islands to 17.27% in Extremadura, a ratio of practically 1 to 3. On the other hand, in the new normal, the proportion ranges from 0.12% from Navarra to 0.93% from Castilla y León, a factor of 1 to 9, although in this case these are very small numbers and an outbreak in a health center or residence can make a difference, since in that case the normal thing is that those affected are in more vulnerable situations than if they are agri-food workers or young people infected at a party.
Communities. Aragón has been choked by the de-escalation. It is the only one of the 19 territories studied (the 17 autonomous communities plus the cities of Ceuta and Melilla) whose rate of cases per 100,000 inhabitants has grown since last June 21, when Spain finished the de-escalation. Taking that date as the deadline, the coronavirus has painted in Spain two very different maps, with very different effects between communities, according to the data that the Ministry of Health offers daily from those it receives from the ministries. Going to the beginning of the process, to the new diagnoses, the average in Spain on June 21 was 524 cases per 100,000 inhabitants. The first on the list is not one of the four that were most pending during the de-escalation (Madrid, Catalonia, Castilla y León and Castilla-La Mancha). That position corresponds to La Rioja, a small community that had a major outbreak at the beginning of the pandemic, with 1,285 cases per 100,000 inhabitants. Next, yes, come Madrid (1,069), Castilla y León (959), Catalonia (790) and Castilla-La Mancha (749). Navarra sneaks in the middle, a community that went through the phases always taking more restrictive measures than those that corresponded (823 cases per 100,000 in that period). Aragon was just below the average, and the list was closed by Andalucía (153), Canarias (112) and Murcia (110), among which Melilla (143) was located.
Already in the new normal, the rate of new positives fell in Spain to 194, taking the data from the August 13 report. This parameter drops for all the communities and cities except in the case of Aragon, which goes from 450 to 1,055, double in less than two months. The second place is occupied by Catalonia (394), followed by Navarra (369) and the Basque Country (285). Castilla y León and Castilla-La Mancha are already below the Spanish average. In the queue are Galicia (53), Canarias (37, the only one that repeats among the three final places) and Asturias (32), plus Ceuta (7).
Age. In the new normal, young people are more infected. The reports prepared by the Carlos III Health Institute based on data from the communities, but which in that case include those diagnosed by any method as coronavirus cases, and not only by PCR, confirm a significant decrease in median age of the new positives. For example, in the report of the research institute that depends on the Ministry of Science of April 3, it is seen that the median age of those diagnosed is between 50 and 59 years; On the other hand, according to the last of these works, published on August 6, it is seen that this value is between 30 and 39 years old. The Minister of Health, Salvador Illa, insists lately that the average age of the newly infected is 40 years, when during the peak of the pandemic it was more than 60 years.
Hospitalizations. In line with this decrease in the severity of the cases that are registering in the new normal is that of diagnosed cases requiring hospitalization. From the beginning of the epidemic until June 21, the Spanish average is 50%. It is very high, but it is explained because in the hard days of the spread of covid-19, most cases were seen directly when they went to the hospital, many of them to the emergency room. On the other hand, the current average is 4.5%, because many asymptomatic patients are detected and, as the average age is lower, less severe.
Information about the coronavirus
- Here you can follow the last hour on the evolution of the pandemic
- This is how the coronavirus curve evolves in Spain and in each autonomy
- Search engine: The new normal by municipalities
- Questions and answers about the coronavirus
- Guide to action against the disease