If the trend of morbidity continues in the coming weeks, we will reach the risk of the collapse of the health system • It is still too early to decide on a closure, but there may be no choice • Interpretation

• Corona ward in hospital // Photo: AFP

After four weeks of morbidity stability, we are recognizing an upward trend. We do not necessarily see this in the number of newly verified patients, but yes in the most reliable index which is the number of new hard patients. This figure was up last week, by 30% over the previous week.

In adults aged 60 and over there is stability in the number verified and in young people under the age of 40 we see even a decrease. This is probably due to the fact that young people do not want to be tested and this hurts us on several levels - young people are not diagnosed and therefore not isolated, and they continue to cause infections. It also hurts the situation that does not reflect reality - we believe that there is stability, when in practice this is not the case.

We do not know exactly what causes the change in morbidity. Israel has been conducting a kind of corona routine for quite a few weeks now. The economy is largely open and many of the activities take place. It must be said that the increase we are seeing now is not dramatic, but it does indicate a change in trend from the state of stability we were in.

The steps and restrictions affect morbidity. There were a number of restrictions that went into effect in July and alongside public obedience, they caused stability. But this is being undermined. Perhaps this is a trend of loosening strict adherence to guidelines. The fact that no further restrictions were imposed kept the situation stable, and now it has begun to rise. We are on 430 patients hard when the collapse threshold of the system is 800. When the number of verified is so high - it may very soon be inevitable that additional restrictions will be imposed. There is no doubt that the upcoming events, including the holidays, the opening of the school year and the trips to Uman, can affect the morbidity rate. This is a time when there are significant interactions between people, and if this trend continues then we may have to impose severe restrictions on the holidays. We have another three weeks until the holidays, and of course we will have to follow developments. This is a challenge we hope we will meet.

In the current situation, we will not be able to afford the continued opening of the sky, including green countries. This can create a problematic situation, because on normal days about 60,000 passengers pass through Ben Gurion Airport every day.

Sickness centers need to be treated and extensive tests performed on all residents in the localities, in order to locate patients. In addition, local locksmiths may be unavoidable. It will not be possible to open educational institutions in morbid centers, and of course the state as a whole must improve information and ask the public to be tested. At the moment, there seems to be a decline in young people's willingness to be tested - and that means losing control of the plague.

I do not support the imposition of a general closure on holidays or holidays, I support any step that will prevent the collapse of the health care system. As of today we are not there yet.

If the upward trend continues in the coming weeks, we will run the risk of collapse. If all the steps we take do not work - with no choice we will also support the imposition of a closure.

Brought to publication: Shimon Yaish

The author is a scientist at the Weizmann Institute of Science