Pablo Sigal
08/30/2020 - 19:50
- Clarín.com
- Society
The last to arrive are also usually the last to leave . Not always, but it happens. Argentina will be among the last countries in the world to reach the peak of the coronavirus curve. The early quarantine, instituted on March 20, although it no longer exists in part, will continue for now until September 20. It is one of the causes of the behavior of the local pandemic.
In the final stretch, that containment dike has given way to the point that Argentina surpassed, one after another and in a relatively short time, countries that seemed unreachable : France, Italy, Germany, Sweden, Canada and Great Britain have been left behind. Now, he has made the last leap to be one step away from Chile and snatch tenth place in the list of nations with the most cases of coronavirus: 409,974 against 408,426.
Instead of emptying the bottle at once, Argentina has done it by dropper . But at this point on the curve, exponential logic makes the drops fall and accumulate faster and faster. Especially in the GBA, which has not only become the handyman of the Argentine curve, but one of the territories that drives the world curve.
If it were possible to imagine a global curve of the coronavirus, today the only engines that continue to eject it upwards are five countries : the United States, Brazil, India, Colombia and Argentina. None reached the peak. Obviously, the number of cases in the United States, Brazil and India are higher, because their populations are.
The United States has eight times the Argentine population, but only five times more cases per day. India is now the country in the world with the most infections every 24 hours (it added 79 thousand this Sunday), but it has four times the population of the United States.
By number of inhabitants, Argentina is currently the country in the world with the most new cases of coronavirus . This exponential logic of the curve and the quarantine have caused the Covid “explosion” to manifest late in our country, when most nations attend outbreaks amid new normalities.
This situation would continue, according to forecasts, until mid-September , when - after 400 thousand cases in the province of Buenos Aires - the district governed by Axel Kicillof finally reaches its peak.
In this transit, hospital capacity continues to be a concern, not only in the GBA, but also in some provinces where cases are skyrocketing . The sum of daily infections inCórdoba, Santa Fe, Jujuy and Mendoza are already equivalent to those of the City. Although they are not decisive in setting up the national curve, health availability in the Interior is less robust than in the AMBA.
The quarantine in the metropolitan area is no longer what it was . The stretching effect of the curve has been possible thanks to those "glory days" of confinement (from May to June). This last endless stretch seeks to cover the last jets of water so that the ship does not sink before mooring.
Quarantine, on the other hand, is once again decisive in the "lost paradise", those previously envied parts of the Interior that today have entered an emergency. The goal there is to contain the community circulation of the coronavirus.
In this final phase of the first stage of the pandemic, after entering the top 10 in the world - which will inevitably happen this Monday - Argentina is likely to overtake Spain in a few days, to finish ninth. And that the national curve only stabilizes when the number of registrations approaches those of Colombia, which today is seventh in the world.
It's funny how in this pandemic everything is about time . The situations in Colombia and Argentina were very similar during the first two months of the Covid in Latin America. Then the curves began to divorce: in Colombia the number of infections grew much faster and this prematurely translated into more deaths . Each country has made its journey (they have a similar number of inhabitants) and in the epilogue of the crisis they will come together again.
Colombia today exceeds 19,000 deaths , more than double that of Argentina. The unknown is still how close our country will get to that figure at the end of the winding road. And if in the end the longest quarantine in the world, as a reward, will manage to preserve the relatively low fatality rate that it still has today.
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