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After months of confinement, Latin America is back on the streets.
Restaurants and leisure centers reopen.
The first peak of the aggregate curve appears to have been exceeded in several places.
But the situation is not the same in the entire region.
Now the key is in how an increase in activity can affect the evolution of the virus.
An updated analysis: contagions in the new normal
September, 17th
Little by little, Latin America has been reopening.
Unlike Europe, this reopening is more gradual but also driven by realism: people were already taking to the streets before restrictions were lifted, in most cases called by the need for work for those who live on their daily income .
Consequently, and again in contrast also to the European returns to "normality", the streets throughout America (also in many US states) are being filled again with still active outbreaks.
Argentina, for example, is at the top of its growth right now.
Also Costa Rica.
Mexico and Brazil, for their part, have maintained the most constant epidemics in the region and their curve is torn between the decrease forced by saturation in the most affected areas, and new increases in territories still intact for the virus.
The clearest outbreaks have been, however, first in Peru and perhaps now in Ecuador.
After deep and focused blows in these countries, which have not managed to secure the epidemic with quarantines, the new normal puts them before a new abyss that they will try to overcome thanks to the knowledge and skills acquired: more than before, but perhaps still not enough .
- Jorge Galindo
In the graph we update daily the situation of the pandemic and mobility in 15 Latin American countries.
In blue we represent the activity in each country based on the mobility data published by Google.
The lines in each graph represent the incidence of the virus and the R - its rate - if the pandemic grows or subsides.
The colors define the situation as a traffic light:
countries with good mobility, low incidence and few infections
are in
green,
those
in an intermediate situation are in
orange
, and
the worst
in
red
: where the cases are many and the virus spreads Quick.
The pandemic since March
The following table shows accumulated data on cases, deaths and their incidence in 20 Latin American countries since the start of the pandemic in March.
In some countries, infections are slowing down, but deaths, which are late, continue to grow.
The following graphs show the evolution in absolute terms and a logarithmic scale –where the distance between 10 and 100 is equal to the distance between 100 and 1000– the cases and deaths since the beginning of the pandemic.
The rhythm (R) of these cases and deaths is also represented.
When R> 1 they continue to grow, when R <1 they are decreasing.
Information about the coronavirus
- Here you can follow the last hour on the evolution of the pandemic
- Guide to action against the disease