Usually, appointments make people happy.
Not this one.
Professor Bruno Riou has just taken over the head of the crisis unit of the Public Assistance - Hospitals of Paris (AP-HP).
By his own admission, this is "not good news", but a sign that all indicators on Covid-19 are red.
In Ile-de-France, as elsewhere.
Sixty-nine departments are on alert, and even on maximum alert for certain territories (Aix, Marseille in the Bouches-du-Rhône, Guadeloupe).
To the point that bars and restaurants will lower the curtain from this Saturday, and for two weeks.
Two weeks to turn the curve, is that enough?
"Every week counts," replies Professor Xavier Lescure, number two in infectious diseases at the Parisian Bichat hospital.
And for good reason, the incubation time is about seven days and it takes as much for the disease to bring the patient to intensive care.
The measures prescribed today will therefore have their first effects around October 10: fewer people affected means fewer beds in the hospital.
"Reversing the trend does not mean that the epidemic will stop, but that we must slow it down," decrypts Renaud Piarroux, professor at Pitié-Salpêtrière.
Deprogramming of non-Covid care already planned
The numbers speak for themselves.
September 1, 150 Covid patients at the AP-HP, September 23, 330. End of month: 600 expected.
A doubling of admissions in one week which raises fears of an imminent explosion.
"We are close to saturation", breathes Rémi Salomon, the representative of the doctors of the Ile-de-France institution.
A fear shared in Marseille, Bordeaux and Lyon.
"If we extrapolate, we see that we have until mid-October to control the epidemic, otherwise, it is no longer 5,000 intensive care beds that we will need, but 12,000 in mid-November", analyzes Mircea Sofonea , lecturer in epidemiology, at the University of Montpellier (Hérault).
Yes, but aren't the cases less severe than in the first wave?
There, again the good news of the summer dissipates.
From "lower" in August, the level of severity is again "high", warns Professor Catherine Paugam-Burtz, anesthesiologist-resuscitator.
Because, that's it, young infected have transmitted the virus to their elders, less armed to defend themselves.
Consequence: the length of hospitalization, reduced to 13 days this summer, is getting longer: 16 to 18 days, on average.
And for the first time since the deconfinement, the hospitals of Paris are announcing it: the deprogramming of non-Covid care, “which we wanted to avoid at all costs”, will take place from this weekend.
The challenge for the next fortnight: not to postpone more than 20% of surgical operations.
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“The situation is tense in all sectors.
Growth is slower, but inexorable and just as worrying as in March, ”warns Bruno Riou, head of the crisis unit.
So all is lost?
“It is not irreversible, reassures Mircea Sofonea.
The virus circulates four times slower than in the first wave.
At the height of the pandemic, one person infected three more within seven days.
Today it is around 1.3.
No doubt, in part, thanks to the generalization of the mask.
"If we do nothing more, we are going into the wall"
Limited groups, major prohibited events, closure of establishments… the response escalated.
"It's not pleasant, but American data prove that the risk of being contaminated is multiplied by three to four in a bar, by two in a restaurant", argues the infectious disease specialist Xavier Lescure.
And this, even if we drink without fever or cough.
"We are all potentially asymptomatic," he retorts, recalling that one is contagious before being sick.
"Nothing is done, but if we do nothing more, we are going into the wall," warns Remi Salomon.
Even more than all that?
Yes, according to the doctor, it remains to urgently improve the screening policy, the cornerstone of the fight against Covid.
However, today, being tested is an obstacle course and the results sometimes arrive fourteen days after the sample.
"Overcrowding of tests equals difficulty in tracing contacts, and therefore in isolating yourself.
It is a vicious circle which is set up ”, bounces the epidemiologist Renaud Piarroux.
Worse, the delays in accessing results prevent scientists from knowing in real time the number of infected people and thus from having an accurate picture of the epidemic.
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Beyond these margins of progress specific to the health authorities, will the French stay the course of the measures?
"It's hard, super hard, concedes Rémi Salomon, but people have to adhere".
In Marseille, the political class is already standing up against the setting on a diet of its businesses.
To the point that Renaud Muselier, the president (LR) of the Provence-Alpes-Côte-d'Azur region, will file this Friday, September 25, a summary to prevent the closure of bars and restaurants in the Aix-Marseille metropolis.
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Another coup: the director Nicolas Bedos, who on Twitter urged the population to revolt against "government directives". "Let's live thoroughly, kiss each other, die, have a fever, cough, life is too short a parenthesis to taste each other backwards." Dry response from the Minister of Health, Olivier Véran: “It is not for us, for me, to decide who deserves to be protected and who can die. "