Conflicting messages make it difficult to control the pandemic

Clear and well-structured messages are key in any crisis communication, and even more so in a very serious health crisis such as the one caused by the coronavirus.

Public health and sociology experts warn that contradictory messages from the authorities, such as the ones we have heard in recent days in relation to Madrid, undermine the confidence of citizens and can be very detrimental to working as a society in the control of the epidemic.

"The contradictions between administrative levels and the lack of agreement and coherence in the measures have a very negative impact on the population's adherence to preventive measures," explains José Miguel Carrasco, member of the Spanish Epidemiology Society and APLICA researcher.

He gives the example that in the neighborhoods not confined until now in Madrid, residents could follow the restrictions on mobility less by giving greater credibility to those who defend that the threshold to act should be higher (1,000 cases per 100,000 inhabitants) than the tax (500).

"At a time when the entire population should internalize the scope of the situation we are experiencing and integrate the need to follow preventive measures in their daily lives, contradictions and lack of agreement should be the least possible," he claims.

Politicians, recalls the sociologist Josep Lobera, "somehow decode complex realities for people who have confidence in them."

In other words, if citizens do not have all the information available at their fingertips and, in addition, it deals with issues that involve some difficulty, they tend to look towards people who inspire them with security.

Spaniards have seen both the Ministry of Health saying that the epidemic is out of control in Madrid and that we must act with determination - "we are late", Minister Salvador Illa said - and the regional government assuring that everything is under control and that hospital occupancy improves.

"If you trust the president of Madrid, you are going to interpret reality according to what she is describing, and that is going to affect your behavior," explains Lobera.

It is difficult to measure the impact on the degree of compliance with the recommendations, says Fernando Rodríguez Artalejo, professor of Preventive Medicine and Public Health at the Autonomous University of Madrid.

But he affirms: "The contradictions in the messages are undesirable, because they suggest that they have a component of arbitrariness, and reduce their credibility."

"If the population perceives a lack of control, that it is not well known what is good and what is not, it will only comply to avoid sanctions," adds epidemiologist Jesús Molina Cabrillana.

Lobera assures that the social sciences have had evidence for years that when faced with complex issues, especially science and technology, citizens use what is known as trust shortcuts, especially by believing politicians we trust or whom we vote.

A recent investigation examined data from US President Donald Trump's vaccine tweets showing the influence of those messages on the rejection of vaccines among her voters.

And he sees a problem in the future: “If the Madrid president contradicts the Government, which is the one that is going to give us vaccine recommendations later, a person who trusts her will believe that the Government is wrong in diagnosing the situation and in the measures to be adopted ”.

And that, rebound, "will erode the confidence that that same person will have when the Government says 'now you have to be vaccinated' or anything else related to the pandemic."

The political scientist Ivan Krastev, author of the essay

, ensures that success in managing the pandemic has depended on factors such as social trust, experience in health crises and the strength of public services, and not so much on whether the managers have been democratic regimes or authoritarian.

And he points out that where there is more political division, the answer is more discussed.

In those countries, including Spain, the polarization has deepened: people "more or less support the management of the crisis depending on whether they voted for the government or the opposition."

For César Calderón, an expert in political communication, in the pandemic there are many people who have already chosen a side and "trust the chosen side directly."

That happens with the most politicized.

The rest, he says, "don't know who to believe."

The first victim of this war is the citizen, but the second is politics itself, he assures.

“Credibility is on the ground and the great beneficiaries are those who are outside the constitutional consensus, those who do not propose anything and their role consists only of criticizing.

Politicians have to reflect and realize that they open avenues for the messages of the national-popular parties to spread ”, he adds.

Experts agree on what messages should look like in a public health crisis like this.

Carrasco defines them as follows: "Honest, transparent and faithful to reality, but also clear, simple and understandable".

And he points out that it is very important to maintain credibility throughout the evolution of the crisis, "especially when the accumulated fatigue of the population is especially high."

As now, the population is being asked "a new effort to follow recommendations that will cause them discomfort to a greater or lesser extent": limitation of movements and activity, reduction of social interactions, and so on.

The discordant messages of the political authorities, who are the ones who manage the crisis, have another dangerous derivative, points out Carrasco: “They also put at stake the credibility of those who generate the necessary knowledge to manage the crisis, science, since visions are provided different from a problem supported with the same data ”.

Information about the coronavirus

- Here you can follow the last hour on the evolution of the pandemic

- This is how the coronavirus curve evolves in Spain and in each autonomy

- Download the tracking application for Spain

- Search engine: The new normal by municipalities

- Guide to action against the disease