The global economy is emerging from the depths of the crisis. But this calamity is far from over.
All countries are faced with what I call the 'long climb', a difficult climb that will be long and uncertain.
It is ready to halt. ”This was stated by
the director general of the IMF, Kristalina Georgieva
, noting that growth estimates for 2020 will be revised slightly upwards thanks to a slightly better-than-expected second and third quarters.
The IMF will announce its new estimates for the global economy next week.
"We continue to foresee a partial uncertain recovery in 2021. We expect global production to remain - adds Georgieva - well below our pre-pandemic estimates in the medium-term. For almost all countries, this will be a joke. stop in improving living standards ".
Risks to the recovery "remain high. And several weights have become more vulnerable. Their debt levels have risen due to the budget response to
the coronavirus
crisis"
and the "large loss of production and revenues. We estimate that public debt. global will reach the record of about 100% of GDP in 2020 ", adds the director general of the IMF, Kristalina Georgieva, underlining that governments have allocated 12 trillion dollars for the emergency," but some are able to do more than For advanced economies it is whatever it takes ", doing everything possible at any cost, while for" poorer countries whatever is possible ", trying to do everything possible.
Georgieva then reiterates that the coronavirus recession is less severe than initial forecasts.
According to the IMF, there are four immediate priorities going forward.
"Defending public health. Spending on treatment, testing and tracking is imperative," says Georgieva, stressing that the second priority is "avoiding premature withdrawal of stimuli".
The IMF director-general then lists "flexible" fiscal policy and "debt management, especially for low-income countries" as the other priorities.
According to Georgieva it is also essential to avoid the repetition of the 'Tale of two cities'.
"The crisis has accentuated inequalities given the disproportionate impact on low-skilled workers, women and young people.
There are clearly winners and losers, and the risk is to end up as a 'Tale of two cities'.
We must find a way out ", observes Georgieva, inviting us to" draw inspiration from the previous generation to deal with this crisis ". A previous generation that" shaped a better world at the worst possible moment, in the middle of the war.
We now need the same spirit for the post-pandemic world, we need to build a more resilient and inclusive one. "
