Just listen to a voice.
That, breathless, of Gilles Pialoux, this Thursday evening.
Perhaps because the head of infectious disease at Tenon hospital in Paris is tired of “chasing the virus.
This Thursday morning, there was no longer a free bed in a Parisian establishment close to his.
During the first wave, the doctor found "consolation" by telling himself that the rest of the territory was (more or less) spared, that reinforcements would come from the regions.
“But there, even rural areas are affected,” he says.
Look, even in Rodez.
He could also have named Clermont-Ferrand, Reims, Roubaix, Albi, Tours, Pau… Everywhere, or almost, the virus is infiltrating.
So, after sounding the curfew from 9 p.m. to 6 a.m. in nine metropolises, the Prime Minister decreed it this Thursday for 54 metropolitan departments as well as in Polynesia.
As of Saturday, therefore 46 million French people will be subjected to this night confinement.
Cinemas, theaters, restaurants, shops that will turn off their lights.
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At the desk, like every Thursday now, Jean Castex was sharp: “The situation is serious.
" But why?
Because the number of patients continues to grow (nearly 42,000 this Thursday alone, a record!) At the same time as the reproduction rate of the coronavirus, R0, now at 1.35.
This means that each infected person will infect 1.35 within seven days.
"Concretely", insisted the head of government, there has been a doubling of the number of cases in fifteen days.
“Initially it was every four weeks, then every three, then now every two.
We are in the midst of the exponential phase of the epidemic, as in March, ”comments Dominique Costagliola.
And then, after having deciphered the curves with her vocabulary as an internationally recognized epidemiologist, the researcher does not mince words: “We obviously waited too long to tell ourselves that we were in trouble!
"
Jean Castex: "November will be trying"
Because calming the fire is not that easy.
The curfew, barrier gestures, recourse to teleworking, the call to reduce social interactions to a maximum of 6 people, the downloading of the TousAntiCovid application will perhaps allow, and it is to be hoped, an inflection in the weeks to come.
But one thing is confirmed: "November will be trying", in the words of Castex, stressing that the positive cases of today will be for some the hospitalized patients of tomorrow "and perhaps the dead the day after tomorrow.
"
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Already, across the country, 44% of intensive care beds are occupied by Covid patients.
“No more infectious disease beds!
Gilles Pialoux point.
All with missing staff and tired caregivers.
“In some regions, the pressure on the hospital is particularly palpable: Ile-de-France, Rhône-Alpes, Hauts-de-France and Paca.
In the first, private establishments will be called upon to take care of patients.
“Positive point, raises Professor Pialoux, patients in sheaves are less intubated and come out more quickly.
"
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Silencing the “it only happens to others”, Professor Etienne Gayat, who works at Lariboisière hospital in Paris, recalls that 50% of patients in critical care are under 60 years old.
And tomorrow?
“There is still time to avoid harsher measures, but there is not much time left.
Understand, if nothing moves, awaits an even earlier curfew but also re-containments.
Dominique Costagliola, she resigned herself to it: “The probability that we can avoid them is very low.
And the numbers could take us into Christmas time.
"