France has officially passed the symbolic milestone of one million cases of Covid-19 since the arrival of the virus in France.
After a summer lull, the second wave hits hospitals with full force.
For Saturday alone, a new record of 45,422 cases was recorded in twenty-four hours.
While the government has just extended the curfew to more than two-thirds of the population, epidemiologist Martin Blachier fears that this measure is insufficient to put out the fire
France is hit hard by the second wave.
Can it be worse than the first?
MARTIN BLACHIER.
It is likely if nothing is done.
The second wave can always be worse than the first because there are still a lot of people who have not yet been infected with Covid-19 and the first wave had been considerably slowed down by the establishment of containment.
If we do nothing, the virus could cause at least as many deaths, or even more than in March-April, even if the mortality of severe forms has fallen thanks to better care.
Are you surprised by the virulence of this second wave?
When I saw the figures for the number of contaminations arriving at the beginning of October, I couldn't believe it.
Just before, the curve was rather linear.
And then we suddenly moved into a new phase, with an increase in cases not controlled by barrier measures.
For three weeks, it has started to increase exponentially, including in regions that had so far been very little affected such as Creuse or Ariège.
And this phenomenon is the same everywhere in Europe.
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Are hospitals ready to handle this second wave?
In Ile-de-France, 62% of intensive care beds are already occupied by patients with Covid-19.
And next week, the number of people hospitalized in intensive care in France is expected to rise from 2,000 to 3,000.
It is starting again everywhere and we will not be able, as we had done during confinement, to transfer patients with Covid-19 from one department to another because everyone will want to keep their sheaves for their local population.
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How to explain such a resurgence of the epidemic?
Several hypotheses are on the table.
We thought for a while that it was linked to the start of the academic year because the virus circulates a lot among 20-30 year olds.
But we can clearly see that the Covid-19 today affects all age groups and departments where there are no large universities.
The most probable assumption is that of outside temperatures.
That is to say ?
The drop in mercury in early October almost immediately resulted in an increase in contamination in France.
Two or three days later, the curves started to rise again.
It seems that the arrival of autumn allowed the virus to resume its course and we have now lost the control that we had this summer.
Some think it is because the virus is more resistant to cold than heat, others that it is because our immune system is weaker in the fall, still others that it is because we have more tendency to find ourselves in closed places.
There are a myriad of hypotheses to explain the current virulence of the virus.
But in any case the figures do not bode well and we are in a much more critical phase than a month ago.
PODCAST. Covid-19: how France sees the arrival of the "second wave", our reporter tells
But will the implementation of the curfew not reduce the number of contaminations?
We will have the answer in a week, until the measure takes effect wherever it has been applied.
But I do not believe in the effects of the curfew.
It's a bit light to curb contamination, given the strength of the virus.
I think we need to go further, especially to protect vulnerable populations who continue to be infected during the day and at weekends.
What do you think ?
I advocate "solidarity" confinement of these populations at risk, in particular those over 65 and the part of the population aged 45 to 65 who is immunocompromised, suffers from diabetes or other pathologies which expose them to significant risks. in case of contamination.
Their attending physicians could order them to self-isolate.
This would make it possible to protect them, to relieve the caregivers who will be overwhelmed by the second wave and the rest of the population who do not want to be forced to re-contain them.
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Could France experience a succession of epidemic waves?
We are in fact entering into a management of epidemic waves which will rise and then fall. If the re-infections of people already affected for the first time by Covid-19 remain rare phenomena, after a while the virus will eventually no longer have a hold. But if the immunity of a person with Covid-19 lasts only six months and these people can be infected a second time, then the situation will be very different. Today, it is unfortunately impossible to have a long-term vision on the evolution of this virus.
