France, faced with "difficult decisions" to stop a runaway pandemic

France is heading towards a tightening of the coronavirus containment measures, in the face of an acceleration of the pandemic that the current provisions - two-thirds of the country are already under a curfew - do not seem capable of stopping.

The question is how far the Government of Emmanuel Macron can or dare to go, which begins this Tuesday two days of marathon meetings focused on the fight against covid-19.

According to the Elysee, the head of state will make a new national address this Wednesday at 8:00 p.m., during prime time in France.

Until recently, the president kept talking about the need to learn to "live with the virus."

A message that, with an average number of infections that has already exceeded 50,000 a day - and which some experts believe is actually double or more - and is beginning to saturate hospitals, has fallen short.

This Tuesday, France has notified 523 new deaths from coronavirus.

• Health reports 267 deaths, the highest number of deaths in a day of the second wave

• France orders a curfew for 46 million French people

Extension of the curfew?

Weekend lockdown?

Local?

Total?

Limitations to the vulnerable population?

The proposals that have been evaluated in the last 24 hours in all the media - but that have emerged from experts, not from the Government, or at least not officially - sound like a probe balloon so that the announcements, when they arrive, do not take by surprise to the population.

What is clear is that the word confinement is no longer a taboo in the upper echelons of power.

"We must prepare for difficult decisions," warned Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin on Tuesday, who nevertheless assured that even he does not know "exactly what they will be" yet.

The way forward is what the Macron Executive will debate in the next 24 hours.

The Elysee held a Defense and National Security Council focused on covid-19 on Tuesday morning.

In the afternoon, Prime Minister Jean Castex called another meeting to “consult the political forces”, from the presidents of the two houses of Parliament to the leaders of the parties and the main organizations of mayors and other elected officials.

He also planned a meeting with "social actors" such as unions and employers, a sign of the extent of the measures that are being evaluated.

On Wednesday, Macron will hold a second Defense Council focused on the coronavirus.

It is from then on when the announcements are expected, according to some media through a new presidential address.

This would mean that the Government has not even wanted to wait, as it had said a week ago, to receive the weekly data - every Thursday - to assess the impact of the first strong measures of this new wave, the curfew between 9:00 p.m. and 6:00 a.m. imposed on large cities like Paris almost two weeks ago and that the last one was extended to a total of 54 departments, which already affects 46 of the 67 million inhabitants in France.

On Monday, the president of the scientific council that advises the Executive, Jean-François Delfraissy, acknowledged that even they themselves, who had been warning of the arrival of a “second wave” for some time, have been “surprised by the brutality of what is happening for ten days ”.

Last Thursday, the Minister of Health, Olivier Véran, had warned that if the epidemic was not controlled, in two weeks it could reach 50,000 daily infections.

That figure, however, was already exceeded on Sunday.

And according to Delfraissy, it could be far below reality.

According to the expert, the real number of infections is "around 100,000 cases a day," he warned.

In this scenario, Delfraissy exposed two possible hypotheses in an interview on the RTL channel on Monday: "Go towards a more massive curfew", especially the country and with longer hours, with the possibility of even extending it to the weekend .

Or "go directly to a confinement", although this would be "less harsh" and shorter than the one in spring and which, he ventured, "would allow to preserve a school activity and a certain amount of economic activities."

Time is running short not only because of the advance of the epidemic: classes will resume on Monday after the first holidays of the school year, and students and parents must know if they will be able to return to class.

The official announcement that students will enter a little later on Monday to participate in a national tribute to the teacher murdered for showing cartoons of Muhammad indicates that, in any case, a total closure of the school system is not expected, although it is yet to be seen whether secondary or higher education students will be able to return to class or not.

Castex has announced on Twitter that it will explain the "new indispensable measures to fight the second wave", and that Macron will foreseeably advance tomorrow, on Thursday before the deputies.

Over the weekend, the National Assembly approved in first reading - this week it reaches the Senate - the bill that allows the state of health emergency to be extended until February 16 and that gives the Government more leeway to impose drastic measures to stop the pandemic.

Information about the coronavirus

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- Guide to action against the disease