Adriana santagati
10/28/2020 8:34 PM
Clarín.com
Society
Updated 10/28/2020 8:34 PM
Almost eight months after the start of the pandemic, Argentina reached the figure of 30,000 deaths from coronavirus.
With this indicator on the rise, our country is today ranked 13 in the world in
deaths per million inhabitants
.
In the Government they concede that it is
a high number
and indicate that Argentina will stabilize in the ranking due to the European reappearance, which will once again alter the positions both in cases and in the number of deaths.
They also point out that there are several Latin American countries that are above us and point to an under-registration that, they believe, exists in the region to explain some numbers from other states that, they estimate,
are actually higher
.
But beyond the global photo, the one that is viewed with concern is
internal borders
.
Not only the most populated provinces that are logically pushing the curve in this stage of nationalization of the pandemic, but also others that, despite having a much lower population density, lead the same ranking, that of mortality per inhabitant, in Argentina .
Thus, Córdoba and Santa Fe are increasing the global account, but Tierra del Fuego, Neuquén and Tucumán are the ones with the most deaths per 100,000 inhabitants.
What are the causes?
In the ministry directed by Ginés González García they insist that the time that was gained with the anticipated quarantine and the investment of 45,000 million pesos - the highest in Health in democracy, they emphasize - to reinforce the health system a number of deaths was avoided that could be higher.
But they recognize that these seven months were not
enough
to compose the
structural fragility
both in hospital services and in human resources in some provinces, and that this is what these indicators are showing.
That these mortality numbers
reflect the weakness of those health systems
.
The other reason must be sought in the circulation and individual responsibility that the infections that at the beginning of the pandemic were focused on the AMBA spread throughout the territory.
And that is where from Health they make their main
self-criticism of the management of the pandemic
: that they should have been stricter to restrict with the local authorities the circulation in certain parts of the Interior in July, when the "bug" began to get into the provinces.
The first 15,000 deaths had been registered on September 25, more than six months after the first positive case of Covid.
That number doubled in just 33 days.
And that acceleration will continue because the number of cases is still very high: the last part accounted for 13,924.
You already know that there is a percentage of those positives that will inexorably perish.
No positive results with the different drugs that were tested in the Solidarity trial, no results either with the clinical studies of plasma, other than in a steering wheel that the trial with equine serum - whose conclusions are delayed - and other experimental treatments can provide,
the bet is exclusively on the vaccine
, with an aggressive vaccination campaign before the start of autumn that allows cutting the circle and avoiding the "regrowth effect" that Europe suffers today.
How many cases and how many more deaths will we have until then?
How will the biggest openings - read for example flights - and the long-awaited summer season play out on the medium-term scenario?
As for the positives that Argentina will accumulate when the pandemic ends or at least it is dominated almost like a seasonal flu thanks to the vaccine, officials believe that risking a number is futurology.
But
they do account for mortality
: they take an average of 250 deaths a day (in the last seven days, that average was 343) and multiply it for the next 90 days.
Thus, between now and the end of January
, 22,500 more deaths would be added to the statistics
.
The figures, in any case, are relativized by individual attitudes, and that is what they stand out the most at this stage.
Keeping them stabilized or with a downward trend when more players are "leaving" to the field, which has been happening in the AMBA, is positive, but the numbers are still high.
They believe that, from Europe's experience, summer would not be a cause for concern - more time outdoors, less possibility of contagion - as
long as preventive measures are followed
.
"The State cannot put a policeman on every citizen," says an official who came directly to Ginés.
And he once again calls on people to respect the protocols to tend to smooth the curve and that, thus, the dead also fall accordingly.
ACE
Look also
Coronavirus in Argentina: "If we had followed Sweden, today we would have 13,900 deaths" and other phrases that ignored the worst prognosis
Argentina reached 30,000 deaths from coronavirus: which provinces push mortality the most and why