“It is quite possible [that at the end of the year], you will be told that 2020 has been an almost normal year” in terms of the number of deaths.
In the midst of a health crisis, Jérôme Salomon's statement to the parliamentary commission of inquiry devoted to the management of Covid-19 on Wednesday is surprising.
And yet, beyond the apparent paradox at the national level, the statement of the Director General of Health is revealed to be correct in certain territories.
For the country as a whole, "between March 1 and October 19, 2020, 402,681 deaths occurred in France, or 9% more than in 2019," explains Sylvie Le Minez, of INSEE.
An excess mortality of more than 32,000 people.
LP / DATA
In detail, until February 28, 2020 took nearly 9,500 fewer lives than 2019. Under-mortality over the first two months of the year that INSEE explains "no doubt" by "the virulence of the 'flu epidemic in 2019'.
In March and April, on the other hand, the trend is clearly reversed with nearly 27,000 additional lives cut down in 2020. Then, from May, the death levels remain fairly close.
LP / DATA
If the second wave currently underway did not cause any excess mortality and simply followed the 2019 mortality, France would therefore have at least twenty thousand more deaths by the end of 2020. Yet even among the most optimistic epidemiologists, no one is considering a return to normal from a statistical point of view due to the pessimistic forecasts linked to the coronavirus at the end of October.
But if, in the national case, it is unlikely that the 2020 mortality falls below the level of 2019, in 19 departments, rather spared by the Covid-19, the figures show for the moment an under-mortality, in particular in the South West.
LP / DATA
This is particularly the case for the Dordogne, Haute-Vienne and Tarn.
Other departments saw their mortality greatly increase in 2020: it was thus increased by 54% in Haut-Rhin and even by 58% in Seine-Saint-Denis.
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Unless there is an epidemiological miracle, therefore, it is unfortunately unlikely that 2020 will see fewer deaths than 2019.
