View of the tent set up for PCR tests in front of the CAP on Passeig Sant Joan in Barcelona this Wednesday.Enric Fontcuberta / EFE
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The coronavirus continues its progression regardless of the barrage of measures taken against it in recent weeks.
On the eve of the weekend of the All Saints Bridge, the new cases registered have added 25,595 people, the highest number of the pandemic.
In total, 139,546 positives have been reported in the last seven days, the worst week in the series.
In the previous one they were 109,572.
In addition, 239 more people have died, raising the total registered deaths to 35,878 (although the real figure is around 60,000).
As a consequence of the increase in cases, the cumulative incidence is also at a maximum (485,28).
Only the Canary Islands, Madrid and Melilla decreased their incidence slightly (in all the others it continues to rise), within what could be considered stability.
The archipelago maintains it around 75 (this Friday it is at 76.67), the community of the capital falls to 414.91 (on Wednesday it was at 420.79), and it has been between 410 and 430 for practically two weeks. it slightly lowered its maximum on Wednesday, a record among all the territories in the second wave, of 1,290.37, to leave it at 1,276.49.
Aragon, for its part, already exceeds 1,000, as does Navarra.
The other indicators are not better.
The percentage of hospital beds dedicated to patients with covid and that of ICUs are also at highs (14.73% and 26.59% respectively).
There are already 18,162 people hospitalized for coronavirus, almost 600 more than on Thursday.
These two indicators follow the case of cases, and usually reflect variations in the number of diagnoses within one or two weeks.
In other words, even if those diagnosed began to decline next week, income would continue to rise for another week or two.
At the moment each day around 500 more people enter ICUs than those who leave.
With these data it is seen the need that the holiday, with its trips to cemeteries, does not aggravate the situation.
The weekly cases (taken from Saturday to Friday, to be able to compare with the data of this Friday) were around 70,000 from the end of September to mid-October.
In two weeks they have almost doubled.
Last weekend the state of alarm was approved and in recent days the communities have tightened all their measures.
Along with the night curfew decided by the Government, almost all have imposed perimeter closures on their territories, a restriction that many autonomies have reinforced with the closure of cities or neighborhoods.
You can only leave the islands, Galicia and Extremadura, but excluding the Canary Islands, in the other three communities there are also confined municipalities.
In the Balearic Islands it is Manacor, in Extremadura several towns and in Galicia the seven largest cities.
To these restrictions are added the closure of nightlife, capacity limitations, the closure of bars, the reduction of groups ... All with the idea of not reaching a complete confinement like that of March (or similar, already it seems that schools could be safe).
That is the intention, at least, of the Minister of Health, Salvador Illa, who this Friday morning, in the presentation of the budgets of his department, said that "it will not be necessary to go" to home confinements.
"The communities have taken very forceful measures that are sure to bear fruit."
The minister stressed that, with the approval of the state of alarm, a "framework of stability with very powerful measures" was achieved, and has asked for time for the latest measures, such as the curfew, which has only been in force for a week. , take effect, which he has summed up in "stabilizing, bending and lowering" the curve of cases.
The idea is that for the virus cycle you have to wait about two weeks, which is the average time it takes to infect and give symptoms.
This optimism is not shared by many specialists.
“We are late with the measures to be implemented.
We should have acted faster by looking at the figures for each community and focusing on those with the highest population density and where cases were increasing the fastest.
Solutions such as those in Germany (closing bars and restaurants for a month) and France (isolation at the national level) should be chosen and strict confinement should be carried out to get the data back under control.
After that, we could talk about perimeter confinements, but at this moment we need speed to go ahead of the virus and not behind ”, says Patricia Guillem, professor of Epidemiology at the European University of Valencia.
This position is also shared by Daniel López-Acuña, former senior official of the World Health Organization, José Martínez Olmos, former Secretary General of Health, and Alberto Infante, writer and former Director General of the Ministry's Quality Agency, who coincide in which a population confinement of at least 15 days of duration should be proposed for those places on the verge of sanitary collapse.
"The curfew is the starting point, but we must be open to even more restrictive measures if the curve does not stabilize in the coming days," says López-Acuña, who proposes an escalation of measures.
First, "curfew or full confinement for the weekend";
then, "in addition to the curfew, return to phase 1 of the de-escalation with more severe restrictions on daytime schedules";
subsequently, "return to total confinement in the most affected areas for a short period" and, finally, "total confinement for the entire population as from March to June."
All this with weekly evaluations to be able to anticipate the situation.
“The goal is to reach a cumulative incidence of less than 25 per 100,000 inhabitants, as soon as possible.
But you have to be aware that this will take weeks ”.
Information about the coronavirus
- Here you can follow the last hour on the evolution of the pandemic
- This is how the coronavirus curve evolves in the world
- Download the tracking application for Spain
- Guide to action against the disease