In his office in Copenhagen, Denmark, the curves of the epidemic are emerging on his screen.
This Monday evening, one is particularly alarming: nearly 300,000 deaths from Covid in Europe.
"This figure will increase further," warns Catherine Smallwood, responsible for emergency situations at the World Health Organization (WHO), in 53 countries of the Old Continent.
Despite a very busy schedule, between the war in Nagorno-Karabakh, the earthquake in Turkey, this English expert, rare in the media, takes the time to give us an interview.
This pandemic, she describes it as "never seen since the flu of 1918".
She herself has lost relatives.
"This is the first time that I have experienced the emergency to which I am responding".
How to explain the sudden acceleration of the epidemic in Europe?
CATHERINE SMALLWOOD.
During the summer, the health situation being relatively calm, countries re-authorized travel, the economy picked up, cinemas and restaurants reopened.
The barrier gestures have relaxed.
The youngest have started to circulate the virus again.
At the start of the school year, there was an acceleration in contamination and it was increasingly difficult to trace new cases.
The return of the cold did not help, people spent more time indoors where the virus is transmitted more easily.
So we “missed” our summer?
At the individual level, there has been a continued frustration.
We want to get our life back.
Unfortunately, it is not our weariness that will make the epidemic go away.
It's going to take time for that.
In the meantime, we have to invent a "new normal", which allows us both to live and to keep control of the virus.
He is a formidable enemy.
Has Europe once again become the epicenter of the epidemic?
Yes !
Even if it is difficult to decide between it and the Americas, its very rapid acceleration means that all eyes are on Europe, and particularly on the West.
The context is particular: the population is concentrated, the movements of population quite important inside and outside the countries, and demographic aging means that there are more inhabitants at risk.
With one of the highest number of cases, is France the continent's poor student?
There are no good or bad students at the moment.
Once the pandemic is over, we can tell which states have carried out the right actions at the right time.
What happens in a country today does not predict what will happen there tomorrow.
China or Thailand, which had very high peaks, are now controlling the virus.
The Balkans, on the other hand, experienced peaks during the summer.
We at the WHO were very focused on these countries while in Western Europe nobody looked at them.
In France, the peak is now.
Immediate measures are therefore needed to limit its impact.
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Is the containment too flexible?
No, in France it is quite severe.
Given the spread of cases across the country, this decision was inevitable.
Schools remain open and that's a good thing.
Between going to a restaurant or sending the children to class, the choice is quickly made.
Of course, schools are not without risk.
But we know that the little ones are not very sick and we are always trying to understand their role in the transmission of the disease.
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Are we going to continue the confinements?
I repeat, it is not a first line tool but a last line tool when there is no other option left.
If containment is the only measure taken, the virus will begin to circulate again as soon as it is lifted.
What to do then?
As soon as the curve goes down, you have to seize the opportunity and set up the test-trace-isolate.
This strategy is effective when you have 20, 30, 40 new ones a day, not after the transmission of the virus flies off.
The Asia Pacific got there.
Of course, this system is expensive, but it is much less than closing an economy.
Apart from contact-tracing, which can be improved, government actions are there.
Now it's up to the individual to ask questions.
If I, Catherine, decide not to stay at home, to party, what impact will my behavior have?
Rather than going to a restaurant, can't I take less risk by having it delivered?
These questions will have to be asked again after leaving confinement.
Everyone must be on board.
Which countries are you most worried about?
All!
Almost everywhere, the number of cases and deaths is increasing, including in Central Asia and the Balkans.
It does not depend on the wealth of the country: all systems are vulnerable to the virus.
From Italy to Spain, already very affected in February-March, to Belgium or the Czech Republic, we are seeing a resurgence of emergency visits and hospitalizations.
These numbers are increasing very, very, rapidly.
Result, we stop non-Covid care.
We are going to ask people who have cancer to wait.
On the contrary, what strategies could inspire us?
From the start Finland has taken decisive and swift measures regarding contact-tracing.
The population was very cooperative and the impact on the epidemic was immediate.
That is really the lesson to be learned!
We must be ahead of the virus and not let ourselves be overtaken.
What do you think of Slovakia which is screening its entire population?
It's an approach… Slovakia is a fairly small country, so it has the capacity to do this on a massive scale.
But this is not the global strategy adopted by the WHO.
Countries are recommended to test each suspected case to identify infected patients.
The Minister of Health, Olivier Véran, said he was "moderately optimistic" about the arrival of a vaccine in the coming months.
And you ?
The same!
"Moderately" is the right word.
The challenge is enormous.
Of course, we have more than 150 candidate vaccines, of which about 20 are at an advanced stage.
And in general the success rate is 10%.
Statistically, we would therefore have one or more.
Even when we have them, it will take time for them to be accessible to the population and the first immunized will be the most vulnerable.
During this period, which could be long, the virus will continue to circulate.
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How long are we going to live with him?
This is not counted in weeks or months but rather in years!
Again, it will depend on the vaccine, if it is effective and for how long.
Until his arrival, the waves will continue to follow one another.
We must succeed in making them flat in order to keep control of the situation, and no longer suffer the ups and downs that we know.
The only way to do this is to find all the cases of Covid.
One thing is certain, the virus is with us forever.
What remains to be seen is what its impact will be on our health and our society in the long term.
Can we celebrate Christmas?
We can always!
But how… that's another question.
It is difficult to predict how the epidemic will develop in France.
It all depends on the effect of actions taken now and after containment.
One thing is certain, it will not be a Christmas like any other.