Irene Hartmann
11/06/2020 20:03
Clarín.com
Society
Updated 11/06/2020 20:03
A good one and a bad one.
The good news, that coronavirus cases have been falling for two weeks and with an unprecedented fact: there were - last Thursday -
more recovered than new infected
.
The bad news, since nothing is so linear,
we passed the United States in deaths per million inhabitants
.
This data has less impact if it is understood that the “photo” of the deaths has a
delay
of about a month with respect to infections.
In other words, we now see the tail of the covid-19 peaks that
hit several provinces between September and October
.
But even considering that the northern country is seven times our population, it is overwhelming - at this stage of the party - to count, proportionally, more deaths than they.
United States, Until this Friday, the northern country counted 241,986 deaths, at a rate of
730 per million inhabitants
.
In Argentina, with 33,136 accumulated deaths according to the last part, the ratio is
731 deaths per million
.
It should be noted that the contagion curve, here, is falling, while that of the United States rises (in what seems to be a new “wave”), so it would be logical that, in a few days, they would be on
top again ours
in deaths per million inhabitants.
The figures are very different, but very high.
Who will forget that memorable May cover, when
The New York Times
denounced, through a nightmarish list of 100,000 deaths from covid-19, President Donald Trump's neglect to face the pandemic.
To many, here, the perverse side will have come out: for once in our lives we were "better".
A doctor checks coronavirus patients in a Buenos Aires hospital.
Photo EFE.
No longer.
According to the
Worldometers
site
, Argentina was this Friday in 9th place among the countries with the most deaths per million inhabitants (discounting San Marino and Andorra, due to their small population), immediately behind the United States.
To assess the relevance of this "rise", researcher
Rodrigo Quiroga
(UNC-Conicet), one of the "followers" of the pandemic statistics in the country, focused on the role played by the famous
high plateau
of cases.
“In comparison with the United States, the truth is that they are
different realities
.
There, although the federal government did not take many measures, the states behaved differently, some with very strong measures, "Quiroga introduced.
As for Argentina, he remarked that "we have many deaths because we could not quickly lower the contagion curve, particularly in the AMBA. And since it 'opened' quickly, we were stuck on that
very high plateau
, which resulted in many people continue to be infected and some of them die ”.
The president of the United States, Donald Trump, was characterized by his puerile assessments in the face of the severity of the coronavirus pandemic.
AFP photo.
The second important moment, he said, was the transfer of the virus to the rest of the country: the
nationalization of the pandemic.
"We were unable to geographically control the virus and it spread between July and August, resulting in an even higher number of deaths."
Contrasts
It is forced to compare the neglect of local authorities in February, when landings from abroad were ruthlessly enabled (which led to the first local outbreaks) with the puerile and denialist management of the pandemic by President Donald Trump.
Beyond the criticism, since March Argentina has focused its efforts on
avoiding a collapse of the health system
.
That, for now, was achieved.
It is also difficult to compare the following, but it must be mentioned.
One of the points of greatest contrast between both countries was the
active search strategy for asymptomatic cases
, the “vectors” of the coronavirus.
Per million inhabitants, the United States has carried out more than 466,000 tests.
We, just over 70,000.
The return to training at the football school in the town "Rodrigo Bueno", City of Buenos Aires.
Photo Lucia Merle.
But, according to Quiroga, it is better to focus on what is to come: "The curve is slowly going down, but deaths have a natural delay with respect to the disease, not counting the delays in the report, which vary by province."
Thus, he summarized,
It would be logical that these days,
the daily death toll did not slow down
.
However, sooner or later it will fall, as long as another high plateau situation is avoided in the provinces, as happened in the AMBA.
For Quiroga, "it is something that could happen if the provinces remove restrictions. It is important to let the curve of cases fall at the current rate, as much as possible.
If the decline is delayed, more deaths will be added
."
For now, the national panoramic review requires a close look at the “stressed” situation in Río Negro, with 88% of its intensive care (IT) places occupied by “covid and non-covid patients”;
in Neuquén, with 94% of IT beds occupied;
in Santa Fe, with 83%;
and in Chubut, with 81%.
And see how the daily death figures continue in Salta, Santa Cruz and Tierra del Fuego.
The bet is that the slowdown in the new infected curve will result in better fatality numbers before the end of the year.
And, in particular, that the good news of Thursday be sustained: even with 28,000 tests carried out, there were
more people recovered (12,490) than new Covid patients (11,100)
.
A spoonful of optimism.
LGP / AS
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