Usually, INSEE is not used to such a pace.
But "exceptionally", due to the Covid-19 pandemic, the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies communicates weekly data on all-cause mortality in 2020 in France.
After a long summer hiatus, the update reverted to weekly on October 30.
The latest series, published this Friday, November 6, shows the daily number of deaths over the period up to October 26.
We see the beginnings of the “second wave” of Covid-19 on the number of deaths in France, six months after the first.
In the week of October 20 to 26, 1,850 people lost their lives on average every day, whatever the reason (accident, old age, serious illness, etc.), with a peak at 1965 on October 21.
This is 207 more than the same period last year and 273 more compared to 2018.
The latest data will be reassessed
This gap should widen further since the most recent data are "provisional" and will be consolidated and reassessed in the next update, warns INSEE.
The number of deaths recorded in France on October 19 had, for example, increased by 9.3% between the first estimate published on October 30 and its update on November 6, according to our calculations.
“INSEE considered that we could afford to give a first figure if we are around 90% of the actual number.
Communicating on D + 10, as the British are already doing, allows statistics to be given close to reality, ”agrees with Parisian France Meslé, research director at the National Institute of Demographic Studies (INED).
Sociologist Baptiste Coulmont has already reproduced the INSEE data curve on Twitter by reassessing the values of the most recent days upward by a few percent.
“In March, the curve increased very quickly.
There, it is slower but the figures announced for the end of October are at levels never seen at this period when we go back more than 20 years, ”he underlines.
[correction] Here is the number of daily deaths 2001-2020, with today's data published by @InseeFr and @ECDC_EU: a second wave which is starting to show itself well.
pic.twitter.com/LQAAX4tgp3
- coulmont (@coulmont) November 6, 2020
This mortality gap from October 20 to 26 compared to the previous two years roughly matches the number of deaths from Covid that week.
200 people died per day on average including 160 in hospital, according to our calculations.
From November 1 to Saturday November 7, less than two weeks later, it is more than double: 483 daily deaths on average, including 364 in hospital.
It is therefore a safe bet that the all-cause mortality curve rises further during the next data input by INSEE, next Friday.
Highest excess mortality in Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes
Of course, the differences in mortality between this early fall and those of the previous two years are not only due to Covid.
"The problem with deaths from all causes is that we mix everything up: the direct effects of Covid, its indirect effects if other diseases are less covered or, conversely, if it there are fewer accidents, and other causes, ”notes France Meslé.
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That being said, as there has been no “therapeutic revolution”, no significant variation in the population, nor any other exceptional event such as the 2003 heat wave from one year to the next, “these data remain a good indicator for measuring excess mortality linked to Covid while waiting for more complete results, ”underlines the expert.
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Why, despite the Covid-19, is mortality falling in half of the French departments?
Another striking visualization, and which seems to attest to an impact of the second wave of Covid-19 on the total number of deaths: the map of France of the evolution of mortality from September 1 to October 26 compared to the same period from last year.
The Auvergne-Rhône Alpes region is the one where the number of deaths increased the most from one year to the next (+ 12%).
Two of its departments, Haute-Loire, Loire, are part of the seven metropolitan areas where mortality has climbed by at least 20%.
However, this region has been the most affected by the coronavirus since the start of the school year, with more than 1,500 deaths in hospital, or nearly 200 per 1 million inhabitants.
This geographical indicator is all the more interesting that a priori, "there is no reason to believe that the data take longer to be sent to INSEE in certain regions than in others", concludes France. Meslé.
