Reasons to hope in the face of the epidemic?
In recent days, statements have been linked, suggesting the first signs of a decline.
After the Minister of Health, Olivier Véran, who announced last week "a form of slowing down" in the progression of the pandemic in France, it is now the turn of Martin Hirsch, the head of hospitals in Paris, to cautiously evoke "the beginnings of a shift in Ile-de-France".
. @ MartinHirsch: "In the IDF region, we can speak of a beginning of a shift" # Covid19 # le79Inter pic.twitter.com/sTw6Daf4j0
- France Inter (@franceinter) November 9, 2020
Are we beginning to see the effects of the curfew declared on October 17 in Ile-de-France and in nine major cities, then on October 24 throughout the country?
Or even an impact of effective confinement since October 30?
"Eight days ago, we saw about an average of 110 entries in intensive care and 500 in hospitalization against 80 and 400 over the last three four days", declared this Monday morning, Martin Hirsch, on France Inter.
A decrease in the rise
What does this mean?
First, it is not a question of a decrease but rather of a decrease in the increase.
"We have the impression that the number of intensive care admissions is rising a little slower than expected," explains Jean-Michel Constantin, secretary general of the French Society of Anesthesia and Resuscitation.
Overall, we have opened so many beds that we are one step ahead, but the margin remains tight.
"
For example, of the 100 Covid places planned at the Pitié-Salpêtrière, Saint-Antoine and Tenon hospitals in Paris, 12 are still free.
"What we can think is that there may have been a small benefit from the curfew," says Jean-Michel Constantin.
But beware, he says, “it's not all over,” and claiming victory would be a mistake.
We are still far from it.
Moreover, at the national level, the number of people currently hospitalized continues to increase: 27,930 Sunday evening, or 2,562 more than the previous Sunday.
The number of patients in intensive care continues to grow, as does the impressive number of deaths: + 3,420 during the last week.
"The peak is not reached"
“Above all, this trend must not be an incentive to lift barrier gestures, we could pay dearly!
"Not only has the epidemic peak not yet been reached," and nothing says that in three days we will not be saturated if the patients decompensate very quickly ", specifies the resuscitator.
Moreover, this real stabilization in Ile-de-France is not yet visible in other regions.
Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes is facing a surge in the number of patients.
The situation is also critical in Occitania.
"With us, it is full of full and Nîmes is also very saturated", indicates Professor Xavier Capdevila, responsible for resuscitation at the University Hospital of Montpellier (Hérault).
Last week, a small tremor was felt but, on Friday, the number of hospitalizations started again.
"It cooled us off," says the professor.
However, two indicators can give hope for a beginning of the decline.
Starting with the famous R0, namely the number of people that a Covid patient in turn infects.
During the week of October 26 to November 1, it was 1.31 against 1.42 the previous week, knowing that this R must be less than 1 for the epidemic to really regress.
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In addition, according to figures from the weekly bulletin of Public Health France on Thursday, there were 2.2 contact persons per individual tested positive for the virus (-0.6 in one week).
This figure had never been so low since May 11, proof that the French have indeed limited their social interactions.
Too early to let go a little slack
"Is this small drop temporary?"
asks Patrice Bourée, infectious disease specialist at the Fournier Institute in Paris.
We are seeing a little less Covid patients, but it is an impression, a feeling.
We cannot go much further in the analysis.
"For Anne-Claude Crémieux, specialist in infectious diseases at the Saint-Louis hospital in Paris, caution is in order, she said, taking the example of the end of September:" We had noticed a small improvement before an increase brutal cases in early October.
"
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One thing is certain: retrospectively, the addition of the measures between the wearing of a mask, the curfew, the confinement will be "extremely interesting to analyze to better target which ones are effective in order to mitigate the epidemic.
This will remove a certain number of uncertainties and some of them will eventually have to be kept ”.
Faced with this form of slowdown, can we imagine reopening a few businesses, letting go a little slack?
According to Anne-Claude Crémieux, "we are not there yet".
“At this stage, the urgency is to check if the current trend continues.
"