Against the background of the deal with Pfizer, Prof. Eran Segal of the Weizmann Institute presents an optimistic scenario: 420,000 vaccines will reduce mortality by more than 60% • "At some point mortality damage has dropped to the levels that decision-makers may accept, the population"
An experimenter receives the modern vaccine
Photography:
AFP - Archive
Prof. Eran Segal, a computer biology expert in the Department of Computer Science at the Weizmann Institute of Science, wrote this evening (Saturday) on his Twitter account that the first vaccines to arrive in Israel will significantly reduce the number of coronavirus deaths - probably by 60 to 70 percent.
In addition, Prof. Segal states: "There will be a lower but also very significant decrease in the number of difficult patients in the hospitals."
He said, "Suppose that after the medical staff is vaccinated (about 100,000 vaccines), we will start vaccinating the at-risk population, ie by age: in Israel there are about 420,000 at the age of +75, and they are about 70% of those who die from corona. Therefore, 420,000 vaccines with 100 efficacy "% Will reduce mortality from corona by 70%."
Hundreds of thousands of first vaccination significantly lower corona damage
Assume medical teams after vaccination (approximately -100 000 vaccinations), the vaccine's start-risk population, ie by age
in Israel has about -420,000 aged 75+, and 70% of decedents sources
so vaccines whose effectiveness 100 420000 % Will reduce coronary mortality by 70% pic.twitter.com/tH3CqPk3hl
- Eran Segal (@segal_eran) November 14, 2020
"If the effectiveness of the vaccine is 90% as Pfizer reported, then mortality will decrease by 62% (almost three times), and even with a vaccine with 70% effectiveness, mortality will decrease by 48% (twice)," Prof. Segal emphasizes and backs up his arguments with data.
"At some point the damage from Corona mortality has dropped to levels that decision-makers may accept and decide on a gradual return to routine, long before the general population is vaccinated," notes Prof. Segal.
"The discussion about reducing the morbidity needed to return to routine should begin. Returning to routine can also include masks, reducing crowds, partial work from home and other preventative measures."
Netanyahu in Kirya yesterday: "Agreement with Pfizer signed - more vaccines on the way" // Photo: GPO
However, "there are a lot of details and asterisks," he cautions.
"It is not clear what the effectiveness of the vaccine will be in older people because it has not been tested in trials, and there may well be a decrease in efficacy due to a weaker immune system. Risk groups can and should be better identified, for example by using background diseases." (Long covid), which should be assessed and taken into account.
"I presented a very naive vaccination strategy, just for illustration. It is probably worthwhile to combine vaccination of risk groups with vaccination of people who come in contact with a lot of people," he notes and links to research on the subject.
And last but not least, even with a drop of tens of percent in severely ill patients in hospitals it is still possible to reach the threshold of the health system and therefore until the general population is vaccinated it will still have to be maintained, but the main point is that even hundreds of thousands of vaccines will significantly reduce the damage. ".
Watch: Vaccine dose to experimenter and Pfizer production process // Photo: Reuters
As you may recall, this week Pfizer announced that according to preliminary results, the vaccine against Corona it produced is 90 percent effective.
Following this, the Prime Minister announced the signing of a contract with the company for the supply of vaccines, with the hope that supply to Israel will begin in January.
Last night, the head of the public health services at the Ministry of Health, Dr. Sharon Elrai-Price, said that about 500,000 Pfizer vaccine doses are expected to arrive in Israel in January, which will be enough for 250,000 people. The hope is that soon A modern company, with which Israel has an agreement.
