Coronavirus in Argentina: with the slowdown in infections, can we stop having community transmission?

Irene Hartmann

11/17/2020 6:00 AM

• Clarín.com

• Society

Updated 11/17/2020 9:20 AM

In Argentina, the

concept

was installed in March, when cases of coronavirus began to grow.

At first we used the expression erroneously, as the antithesis of "imported cases" and synonymous with "autochthonous cases."

But the label defined that the instance of sporadic cases by conglomerates had been overcome (in a bad sense), and that SARS-CoV2 was circulating freely.

Dwarfed, we ran from behind, unable to define the source of each new contagion.

Will we retrace that path in the summer?

A clarification.

In order for there to be no community transmission, the coronavirus should stop replicating among us.

That will not happen just because.

Something must stop it.

Or an effective vaccine that provides long-lasting immunity and is administered to a large part of the population, something that, it is discounted, will not happen immediately, since the doses will be prioritized for the risk groups.

Or avoid irresponsible contact, continue taking care of ourselves (without relaxation), with

,

, adequate hygiene, avoiding closed spaces, while new cases are tracked and tested.

Or achieve the famous "

".

Boys putting alcohol gel to avoid contagion of coronavirus, in a Buenos Aires square / EFE

Recalculating the axis of this note: Is it herd immunity that explains the drop in the peak of infections?

The specialists consulted said

.

But it is worth stopping at this point to understand the rest.

While the Buenos Aires Minister of Health, Fernán Quirós 15 days ago evaluated that 14% of Buenos Aires had already been infected, a group of experts from the exact sciences that follows the pandemic in the country, represented by Guillermo Durán (UBA), Rodrigo Quiroga (UNC), Rodrigo Maidana (UNLP) and Roberto Etchenique (UBA), prepared a study based on the local mortality rate, which deduces that infections reached

(average, 25%).

It is not enough

 to speak of herd immunity, stipulated between 60% and 70%. 

For this reason, Guillermo Durán (who with Quiroga is part of the group of scientific advisers of Governor Axel Kicillof) said that "it is clear that

. If you continue with the care, the infections should be few , but the ideal would be to go to

, something that is impossible without proper tracking and testing ”.

Four infectious disease doctors consulted for this note gave their opinions with nuances but their vision, in a similar vein, is summarized in a cautious "nor".

In the City, you can already travel standing on the buses.

Photo Xinhua

Javier Farina

, from the Argentine Society of Infectious Diseases (SADI), was critical of any evaluation that underestimates a future regrowth.

He assured that, with less than 50% of the infected population, we are far from herd immunity, and recalled a fact that worries about the questions that it still generates: "

are possible, with which the herd with acquired immunity post infection seems to be less effective ”.

“In Europe, the restrictions after the first wave continued to crush the curve.

Here

, so the situation may be different.

I think there will most likely be regions where community transmission could be suppressed, but

, where my assumption is that there will be a

”.

Wanda Cornistein

, head of the Infection Control service at the Austral Hospital, said that in some jurisdictions the "

" may return

, meaning that community transmission could be "overcome" (in a good way), but explained that "with epidemiological differences", depending on the jurisdiction, it is most likely that "a decrease in cases will be observed, with a proportion of asymptomatic or oligoasymptomatic that

".

Also said

, chief of Infectious Diseases of the CEMIC and scientific director of Foundation Vaccinate: "A doing more activities outdoors, may be less transmission in the coming weeks, but

: it will continue to

run" .

And just as "in Europe the measures were greatly relaxed in the summer, but as the virus continued to circulate, the activities with relaxation themselves generated the outbreaks", Bonvehí remarked that "the same could be observed here when autumn arrives. If in the summer it is possible to keep the activity low, the virus will continue to circulate, less from now on, but if the measures are relaxed a lot, the issue is the

. We

".

Perhaps it would be useful to add the spoonful of realism from

(Gutiérrez Hospital infectologist): “I don't see any chance that in the coming weeks the infections will decrease so much as to disappear.

I think we will

in many provinces ”.

Among those that, in his opinion, should be more cautious, he mentioned Santa Fe, Córdoba, Tucumán, Mendoza, Chubut and the AMBA.

"Perhaps the only ones with little or no direct community transmission are Misiones and Formosa," he said.

The Buenos Aires fairs restarted their activity with a specific protocol to avoid coronavirus infections.

Photo Maxi Failla

Thinking ahead and considering that the curve will not go down to "zero", López described three central aspects "to

".

“The three strategies for minimizing the second outbreak are, first, a lot of social distancing with strict protocols in the summer.

Second, case tracking and testing.

We continue testing little in Argentina, "he explained.

Thirdly, he spoke of the vaccine, a tool on which, blinded, we put more expectation than it corresponds: "The vaccine will reduce hospitalization and mortality, which is very important, as long as we manage to vaccinate at 14 millions of individuals that we believe it is necessary to immunize. But it is important to note that

. " 

Assuming a certain urban relaxation in the face of Covid, evident just by setting foot on the sidewalk, would it be necessary to improve

about the new outbreaks on the horizon?

According to López, yes.

For Farina, "the message is given that it did not end."

In any case, he stressed, "just looking at what is happening in Europe, this cannot surprise us in March ... the vaccine is on the horizon, yes. But arriving with the fewest cases and deaths is everyone's job".

DD

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