There are positive signs and the epidemic curve of Covid-19 cases in Italy tends to stabilize
, but the situation remains highly critical especially in relation to an essential parameter:
the number of victims
, which marked an increase, making
853 registered compared to of 630 on Monday
.
In fact, the trend in deaths is most worrying, destined to remain high for about two weeks.
But the cautious optimism for the first effects of the restrictive measures is also counterbalanced by another negative datum, namely the resilience of the health structures on which a considerable burden remains.
It is an analysis of the epidemiological trend that pushes the utmost prudence and caution that made by the president of the Higher Council of Health (Css), Franco Locatelli, and the director of Prevention of the Ministry of Health, Gianni Rezza, on the occasion of the press conference organized by the Ministry of Health.
Illustrating the daily data of the contagion, Rezza said that the new positives are 23,232, with 188,659 swabs performed against the 149,000 on Monday: "There has been a slight increase in the number of positives".
However, he stressed, "there is a bad figure: there were 853 deaths, a very negative factor".
This also in light of the fact that deaths represent the parameter that falls last.
This situation, therefore, could continue for a not very short period, as Locatelli pointed out.
"I believe - he said - that there will be a number of deaths in this order of magnitude for another 10-14 days, then we should see a decline".
And again: "The number of newly infected is too high; when we are 50 out of 100 thousand we will be relieved, as long as the situation remains this the alert remains high", explained Rezza, underlining that we are currently at 730 per 100 thousand inhabitants in a an escalation that went from 50, then to 200 per 100 thousand inhabitants and which has continued to rise.
The consequence is that the burden on health facilities remains, and therefore "cautious optimism is counterbalanced by the fact that the effects of this long trail will be seen for some time".
The decline in positives, with physiological fluctuating trends in recent days, the experts noted, is instead the effect of the containment measures implemented.
Despite the picture that remains serious, some signs of improvement, however, are beginning to emerge.
The contagiousness index is currently equal to 1.2 and is continuing to decline: "it is a signal that goes in the right direction", said the Minister of Health, Roberto Speranza
, in the Di Martedì broadcast.
"For a few weeks we have seen a sign that in the right direction: the Rt contagion index is lowering. Two weeks ago it was 1.7, then 1.4 is now just under 1.2 and is still falling. This means - he noted - that the measures we have adopted are starting to have their effects and that we must continue to insist on this path because the curve is foldable, we have already seen it in March. We are gradually managing to fold it, but we must insist with the utmost attention and the utmost prudence ".
