health
news
You will find someone your age: the simple step that will reduce mortality from corona
A mathematical model developed by researchers at the University of Haifa found that limiting social encounters to those that include only members of the same age group can reduce mortality from corona by tens of percent, and may be an alternative solution to comprehensive closures.
Tags
Corona
Insulation
Clasp
Walla!
health
Wednesday, 25 November 2020, 05:12
Share on Facebook
Share on WhatsApp
Share on general
Share on general
Share on Twitter
Share on Email
0 comments
A new Israeli study has found that mortality rates from Corona can be lowered with a relatively simple step, and that is that people will only meet with their peers.
The study, conducted in the Purple Department of Neurobiology at the University of Haifa and published in the journal Open Biology, calculated and found that among people aged 55 and over the mortality rate can be reduced by 91 percent, if this age group meets only with family members living in their home and people of the same age group.
"Using a mathematical model we built, we found that the mortality rate from Corona could be reduced by separating encounters between different age groups. Age groups, especially the older ones, should be allowed to meet with their peers by opening different shops, cinemas and restaurants at hours only." Said Dr. Shani Stern, editor of the study.
More on Walla!
NEWS
These researchers want to change the way corona tests are performed
To the full article
In these days when the possibility of a third closure arises, Dr. Stern, together with her colleagues, research student Liron Mizrahi and Dr. Huda Adwan Shakidam, have built a mathematical model for examining various alternatives for reducing morbidity as a result of the corona crisis, without imposing a closure.
The computational model is based on studies published in scientific journals on the rate of virus spread, morbidity, mortality and population distribution, which relate to the population in Italy and Israel.
Simulation of the spread of infection in the corona and mortality rates among a sample group of ten thousand people in five different scenarios.
From the research of Dr. Shani Stern (Spokeswoman for the University of Haifa)
The model examines the spread of the disease among a virtual group of 50,000 people divided into four age groups: 0-14, 15-34, 35-54 and 54 and above.
Each age group met only with family members living with them at home (no restrictions) and with about 14 other people of their age group, all of whom observed the rules of social distance and wore masks.
"We created a number of possible exit scenarios that included restricting ties between different age groups. However, since social ties are extremely important especially to the older population we added new ties from the same age group so that the amount of social encounters did not decrease," Dr. Stern explained.
Social ties are especially important to the older population.
A meeting between relatives in a nursing home in Italy sponsored by the Corona (Photo: Reuters)
An analysis of the various scenarios shows that in a scenario that allows all age groups to maintain habitual relationships based on social distance and wearing a mask and restricting those aged 55 and over to meet only with their peers and family members with whom they live, there was a 62 percent decrease in deaths. There were restrictions on encounters and the expected mortality among a population of 50,000 was 2,183 people.
In the scenario where the social encounters were with members of the same age group the expected mortality rate dropped to 829 people.
In this scenario, social ties were added to the population aged 55 and over with their peers so that the amount of social ties was not harmed, only changed.
More on Walla!
NEWS
Scary: Nearly half of the wedding guests have been infected with corona
There is a chance that the corona did not start in China at all but in this country
Banai fell from 10 floors, doctors determined he died of corona
Important: This is how you will prepare your car for the winter and reduce the dangers
In the most severe scenario, where each age group is allowed to meet only with its age group (and family members from the same unrestricted residence) and it does not add new relationships, there was a 91 percent decrease in mortality compared to the base scenario - from 2,183 deaths to 189 dead people.
The less successful scenario involved maintaining the same social ties but maintaining a greater distance or over-adherence to wearing masks with members of different age groups.
In this scenario there was a decrease in mortality of only 14 percent, compared to the baseline scenario.
In another scenario, it was possible to meet only within the different age groups and replace the lost relationships as a result of age restrictions with encounters within the age group.
In this scenario, there was a 21 percent decrease in mortality compared to the baseline scenario.
Maintain the adults, without isolating them completely
"We hope the vaccine is now close. In the meantime and to avoid full or partial closure, micro-environments can be created where we allow people of the same age group to meet, such as in a supermarket or restaurant. This can prevent businesses from closing and still give wider protection to the population. "This without completely isolating the older population who most of us need social connections," said Dr. Stern.
Share on Facebook
Share on WhatsApp
Share on general
Share on general
Share on Twitter
Share on Email
0 comments
