Istat revises its growth estimates for the third quarter of 2020 downwards. Between July and September, GDP, adjusted for calendar effects and seasonally adjusted, increased by 15.9% compared to the previous quarter against + 16.1% indicated on 30 October last.
Compared to the third quarter of 2019, the Italian economy contracted by 5% against the 4.7% trend recorded in October.
Also revised downwards is the estimate of the so-called acquired GDP, which would be obtained with a zero change in the fourth quarter.
From -8.2% calculated in October, Istat went down to -8.3%.
The acquired change in Italian GDP for 2020 is equal to -8.3%.
Istat calculates this which, based on the downward revision of the third quarter, also corrected the estimate for the end of the year, previously to -8.2%.
The data acquired is that which would be obtained in the presence of a cyclical change equal to zero in the fourth quarter.
OECD: Italy's GDP will grow to 4.3% in 2021 and 3.2% in 2022
- After the sharp decline in 2020, Italy's GDP "should grow to 4.3% in 2021 and 3.2% in 2022 ": this is what we read in the OECD Economic Perspectives published today in Paris.
Italy's unemployment rate will grow from 9.4% in 2020 to 11% in 2021 and "will remain high" at 10.9% in 2022: this is what is stated in the fact sheet dedicated to Italy of the Economic Perspectives of 'Ocse published today in Paris.
"The recovery will be slow and uneven":
this is the warning launched by the OECD in the fact sheet dedicated to Italy in the Economic Perspectives published today in Paris.
The international body for economic cooperation and development insists that coronavirus-related restrictions and uncertainty will weigh on economic activity, investment and employment "until general immunity is achieved", when an effective vaccine it will have been widely distributed, stimulating consumption and facilitating savings ". For the OECD, consumption growth should restart, but households' propensity to save" will remain high ". Investments should find new life in 2022," since public investment will increase and businesses in more resilient sectors "will begin to undertake" replacement investments. "Conversely, the OECD warns, the service sector" will recover more slowly as domestic demand and tourism remain weak until a vaccine effective will not be widely disseminated "." This - underlines the body - will aggravate the labor market and regional inequalities ".
