IDF Intelligence Researchers have raised four options for the day after the vaccination • In the most ideal option, a high percentage of the public will be vaccinated - and there will be a return to routine • In the most pessimistic scenario, responsiveness will be low -
From herd vaccination within a month and back to routine to a situation where the vaccine will not be effective or the public will not trust and be vaccinated:
A report by the IDF Intelligence Division (Corona Knowledge and Information Center) published today (Tuesday) tries to map Of the Corona virus vaccination campaign in Israel.
Knesset debate on corona immunization status, yesterday // Photo: Knesset Spokeswoman
According to the report, intelligence division investigators noted that “the success of the vaccination operation may allow a return to the routine of life, but depends on public responsiveness;
It is right to prepare for the first months in which restrictions and strictness of social distance will still be required, "and four possible scenarios are drawn up.
The first scenario is the most ideal, according to which the vaccine will be effective for all ages and a high percentage of the public will be vaccinated quickly.
In such a situation, it will be possible to remove the restrictions and return to routine about a month after reaching the immunization of 80% of the population.
"The number of new patients will be a few dozen a day. The number of critically ill, respirated and dead patients will be zero, and the economy will be able to return to normal as it was before the corona appeared," the report said.
Another, gradual scenario assumes that the vaccine will be effective, but the number of doses will be limited, so that it will be given first to populations at risk.
In such a situation, it will be necessary to maintain some of the restrictions until high percentages of the population are vaccinated.
This is because even a morbid load on the non-at-risk population can lead to a burden on the health system, as well as cause long-term damage among recovering people.
"In this situation, the population vaccine is expected to be graded and spread over about a year, with the first stage vaccinating the at-risk populations (elderly, health care workers, and patients with background diseases) who make up less than 15% of the country's population," according to the report. Cause a significant decrease in the number of critically ill, respiratory and dead patients, and alleviate the health system.
Public response will affect the end result
A less optimistic scenario is one in which the vaccine is not fully effective and / or has a partial public response.
In such a situation, a gradual release of the economy will be possible, subject to the disease situation.
In such a situation, where only 60-30% of the at-risk populations will be vaccinated, there will not be a large decrease in the number of hospitalized and the health system will remain in place.
However, the adhesion coefficient R is expected to decrease by half in such a scenario.
In this way, it will be possible to alleviate restrictions and at the same time protect populations at risk.
A severe but unreasonable scenario assumes that the vaccine will not be effective or approved, and that public response will be low.
In such a situation, the restrictions will continue and will be similar to the restrictions in the current situation.
However, there are a number of "disappearances" that can affect the success or failure of the corona vaccination campaign, including scientific factors (safety and efficacy of the vaccine, the duration of protection it provides and the formation of mutations in the virus or reporting side effects) The arrival of "herd immunity".
There is no certainty about the approval of the vaccines and the amount that will arrive.
"It is worth preparing for the fact that at least during the first months after receiving the first doses of the vaccine, the vaccine will be another tool, and not the only one, for curbing the epidemic," the reporters wrote. ".
"The success of the vaccination campaign may allow for a reduction in morbidity and return to the pre-Corona routine of life, but depends not only on the quality of the vaccine, which is beyond our control, but largely on the public's response to vaccination as well as public observance of post-vaccination guidelines."
"Early and focused information about the vaccine, and emphasizing the importance of continuing and maintaining social distance guidelines, are expected to increase the effectiveness of the vaccine campaign and contribute to its success. We recommend building an information program aimed at significantly increasing the percentage of vaccinated."
However, "even in the best case scenario, the corona virus is unlikely to become extinct," the researchers note.
This is because it is a zoonotic virus (derived from animals) and animals will continue to be a reservoir for the virus, so it may continue to change.
