The nursing homes, where more than 610,000 elderly people with loss of autonomy live, could have 108,000 more residents by 2030 due to the aging of the population, according to projections by the Drees published on Wednesday.
To read also: "We must not be afraid": three fundamental professions in need of arms in nursing homes
In ten years, 21 million seniors over 60 years will live in France, or 3 million more than in 2019, indicates in a study the statistical service of social ministries.
If the current practices of entering an institution for the elderly with loss of autonomy continued, it would then be necessary to double the rate of opening of places observed since 2012 in order to accommodate 108,000 additional residents in residential establishments for the elderly. dependent (Ehpad) between 2019 and 2030, is it estimated using a calculation method that takes into account the current institutionalization rate of the elderly, the distribution into age groups and degrees of dependency.
Between 2030 and 2050, 211,000 more people could live in nursing homes
Between 2030 and 2050, according to the same projections, 211,000 more people could live in nursing homes.
Thus, “the need to open places in nursing homes and independent residences would be massive” in the next decade, underlines the Drees.
For independent residences, housing complexes for the elderly made up of private apartments and shared common spaces, the needs are estimated at 33,000 more places by 2030 (from 104,000 to 137,000).
If dependency evolves in a more optimistic way, that is to say that life expectancy without disability increased, the need for additional places in nursing homes would be less important, around 56,000 between 2019 and 2030.
On the other hand, if dependency evolves in a more pessimistic way, the reception capacity should be 160,000 additional places, or more than a quarter of the current capacity of nursing homes.
