It was a year ago, to the day.
The very first known infection with the new coronavirus was identified on December 1, 2019, according to a study published in The Lancet by Chinese doctors at Jinyintan Hospital in Wuhan.
A year later and 60 million infections worldwide, CNN reveals how the province of Hubei, cradle of what was to become a pandemic, handled the early stages of Covid-19.
"The Chinese authorities have given the world more optimistic data than they had internal access", concludes the American media, supporting documents.
The CNN investigation appears as China tries to restore its image.
For several weeks, the country has been exhibiting its success in eradicating Covid-19 on its territory and questioning the place of origin of the virus.
It should nevertheless be remembered that some anomalies raised by the American media are not specific to China.
“At the start of the pandemic, the country was faced with the same accounting, testing and diagnostic problems that still haunt many Western democracies today,” underlines, moreover, at the end of the article, CNN.
A document verified by six experts
The US channel had access to 117 pages of documents from the Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in Hubei.
These files show many inconsistencies between the authorities' data and what has been revealed to the public.
They do not, however, provide any evidence of a deliberate attempt to conceal information.
A whistleblower, who wishes to remain anonymous, gave the documents to CNN.
This person claims to work in the Chinese healthcare system and explains that he is a motivated patriot to expose censored truth and to honor colleagues who had also spoken out.
"We do not know how the documents were obtained or why specific articles were selected," said the American media, which had the files checked by six independent experts.
An undisclosed regional flu peak
As SARS-CoV-2 reportedly first emerged in early December, documents indicate that another health crisis was unfolding in Hubei province.
An unusually intense influenza outbreak has indeed been recorded in this region of central China.
During the peak, which occurred the week of December 2, 2019, influenza cases increased by approximately 2,059% compared to the same period the previous year.
But the Chinese authorities did not give the alert.
"The local power has no interest in forwarding this kind of information," says Carine Milcent, associate professor at the Paris School of Economics, specialist in the Chinese health system.
“Local authorities are evaluated by the political apparatus on economic and social objectives.
For a political leader, the objective is therefore not to make waves, so as not to attract the attention of the central power, and to meet the objectives, ”explains the economist.
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The emergence of this major influenza outbreak represents "undoubtedly the most interesting element" of the investigation, notes Antoine Flahault, epidemiologist and director of the Institute for Global Health at the University of Geneva.
“The coincidence is disturbing.
Was this the start of the circulation of SARS-CoV-2?
" he asks.
This significant flu epidemic was not only present in Wuhan, where the first SARS-CoV-2 infections were spotted.
With 2,032 new cases recorded in the week of December 2, the city is behind its neighbors Xianning (2,148 cases) and Yichang (6,135 cases).
Tests carried out on influenza patients return a high number of unknown results, according to documents provided to CNN, which does not mean that these patients had Covid-19.
“This would deserve further investigation, but will they even be possible?
»Asks the public health specialist.
The World Health Organization (WHO), which has not been able to visit China since July, wants to send a team of scientists there to trace the origins of the virus.
The United States has accused Beijing of hiding things, while other WHO member states suspect the Chinese government of slowing down the process.
Undervalued public balance sheets
CNN notes some discrepancies between what Chinese officials knew and the numbers they decided to release publicly, most notably on February 10 and March 7.
This gap "was probably due to the combination of a highly dysfunctional data reporting system and a recurring instinct to suppress bad news", believe analysts interviewed by the American media.
So, on February 10, "only two-thirds of new cases were reported," writes CNN.
China reported 2,478 “confirmed cases” of Covid-19 across the country that day.
Among them, 2,097 have been recorded in Hubei province.
Authorities in the region have also declared 1,814 “suspected cases”.
But the documents submitted to the American channel present other figures: 2345 "confirmed cases" had been identified in Hubei, as well as 1772 "clinically diagnosed cases", 1796 "suspected cases" and 5 "positive tests".
"A large number of
suspected cases
should have been counted as
confirmed,
" laments CNN Yanzhong Huang, global health expert at the American think tank Council on Foreign Relations.
“It reflects how confusing, complex and chaotic the situation was,” he adds.
Hubei authorities improved their filing system a few days later, integrating "suspected cases" with "confirmed".
The American media also reports that on February 17, 93 deaths from Covid-19 were recorded, even though internal documents indicate that they were 196. On March 10, 83 new deaths were publicly announced, against 115 in the documents .
These underestimates "are substantial, but they are not major either", tempers Antoine Flahault.
23 days of waiting before a confirmed diagnosis
During the first months of the outbreak in Hubei, the average time from onset of symptoms to a confirmed diagnosis was 23.3 days.
The delay would have significantly hampered the ability of officials to fight the spread of the virus.
"You analyze data three weeks old and you try to make decisions for today", explains on CNN Amesh Adalja, specialist in emerging infectious diseases at Johns Hopkins University in the United States.
Even taking into account the initial difficulties encountered by the authorities, many experts told the American media that this delay was "extraordinary".
"It shows that the health system was very disorganized ... like ours in the West," said epidemiologist Antoine Flahault.
"Many countries have had a delay in ignition", opines Marie-Paule Kieny, virologist and former Deputy Director General of the WHO.
A document specifies that the situation had improved on March 7: more than 80% of new cases diagnosed that day were then registered within 24 hours.
What are the Chinese authorities responding to?
CNN has contacted China's Foreign Ministry, the National Health Commission, as well as the Hubei Health Commission, which oversees the CDC, to comment on the findings revealed in the documents.
In vain.