Fashion in crisis, 2020 sales down from 15 to 30%, profits -90% - Lifestyle

Fashion will end 2020 badly: globally, the Covid 19 pandemic has led to sales contractions of 15 to 30%.

Worse in Europe, less in the US, better than all in China.

And online has only partially mitigated the situation, just as the luxury segment held out more.

Confirmation comes from The Business of Fashion (BoF) and McKinsey & Company in the "

.

If you look at profits, the figures speak even more clearly: according to the McKinsey Global Fashion Index, companies in the sector could report a

, as a result of reduced sales, changes in consumer behaviors and disruptions in supply chains.

In its fifth edition, the study analyzes the future of fashion - which is worth 2.5 trillion dollars globally - and is based on interviews with the most important managers and on a survey of 320 professionals.

, with an estimated drop in sales between 22 and 35%, although a recovery is expected within the first months of the second quarter of 2022, with the return of travel and tourism.

The United States could record a loss of between 17 and 32% and seem destined for a slower recovery by the first quarter of 2023. China will probably be the least affected country, with an estimated reduction between 7 and 20 % and a return to pre-crisis levels already in the fourth quarter of this year or, at the latest, in the first quarter of 2021. However, these are obviously scenarios, not certainties.

If the recovery were early, thanks to containment of the virus and the vaccine, world fashion sales could reach the levels of 2019 in the third quarter of 2022. If it were late, with recurrent infections and new lockdowns, the levels of 2019 would be revised only by last quarter of 2023.

    Meanwhile

,

was helping

, albeit marginally it weighs on the total.

Despite nearly three quarters of publicly traded companies

losses,

, from 16 to 29% of the total, and over 70% of fashion managers expect the online business has a growth of 20% or more in 2020.

    If we analyze the different segments, we see that

, with an average decrease in sales of 30% and an average decrease in Ebitda of 20% in the quarters between February and June.

The same is true of the global beauty market compared to fashion as a whole and sales should return to the levels of 2019, or exceed them, already in 2021.