Taxes, travel, visas… what would a “no deal” change for the French?

Three weeks before the British exit from the single market and the customs union, negotiations between London and Brussels stalled.

On Friday, the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen told the leaders of the 27 that the hopes of an agreement with London on their future trade relationship were "weak".

But then, what consequences would, for the French, have the United Kingdom leaving its transition phase without an agreement on January 1, 2021?

Almost a year after the signing of the Brexit agreement, if the repercussions of a possible “no deal” are still unclear, several avenues are already emerging.

Buy British: it will be more expensive

In the absence of an agreement, trade between London and the European Union will be carried out, from January 1, under the sole rules of the World Trade Organization (WTO).

An increase in taxes and border crossings would therefore be likely for French companies.

“We are going to apply the WTO rules which are much less favorable than the EU rules.

Fatally, there will be an increase in the price of British products imported into France, ”explains Patrick Martin-Genier, professor at Sciences Po and specialist in European and international issues.

This increase will be due to the increase in taxes, but also to the costs introduced by the new administrative formalities to be completed.

"We could also have price increases on spare parts or components of other products that do not seem British, but some parts of which are made in the United Kingdom", also notes Thibaud Harrois, lecturer in British civilization at the Sorbonne.

This could induce a slowdown in the production chain and an increase in the price of the final product for consumers.

"If you do not buy cheddar every day, you buy, on the other hand, a car of which certain parts were manufactured in the United Kingdom", underlines the expert.

Reside across the Channel: you will need a visa

Regarding French expatriates who already live across the Channel, they will retain, whatever happens, their rights until June 30, 2021. “However, they will have to quickly obtain a residence visa with permission to work or apply for a status of permanent resident ”, explains Patrick Martin-Genier.

Most have already claimed the precious

settled status

set up by the government, which allows indefinite residence in the United Kingdom.

But some French people have not yet obtained it, because the administrative procedures to be carried out to access it are long and complex.

Applicants must therefore provide proof of five years of uninterrupted residence in the country.

For those who have not been settled for long enough, there is still the possibility of applying for a

pre-settled status

,

the pre-settled status

, while waiting to meet all these conditions.

As of January 1, according to the conditions defined when the Brexit agreement was signed last January, a visa will now be required to come to live, study and work in the United Kingdom for all European nationals, at the except the Irish.

"In the medium term, Boris Johnson said he wanted to introduce points immigration permits as is the case in Australia, that is to say according to the qualification of the person", details Patrick Martin -Genier.

To obtain it, very strict conditions must be met, namely speaking English and already having a job offer with an annual minimum salary of 30,820 euros.

Measures that exclude low-skilled or low-paid workers.

However, French people who wish to make a short stay not exceeding three months in the country will be exempt from the obligation to obtain this visa.

Even if an ETA (Electronic Travel Authorization) could be asked of them.

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Traveling to the UK: the ID card will no longer suffice

While a visa will therefore not be necessary for temporary trips by tourists and professionals, these trips will however be more supervised from January 1, whether or not an agreement is reached.

“The British want to take back control of their borders, it's

take back control.

This means that there will be new border controls for French citizens who have to go to London ”, analyzes Patrick Martin-Genier.

The identity card will still be accepted until October 2021, but it will then be necessary to equip yourself with your passport to be able to set foot on British soil.

"There were already identity checks as the United Kingdom is not part of the Schengen area, but now there will also be checks on the content of suitcases, since the free movement of goods will disappear", assures Thibaud Harrois.

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Travelers will have to fill out a form to clarify if they have a declaration to make, or “nothing to report,” and procedures for traveling with pets could tighten up.

In the event of a "no deal", individuals with goods to declare, as well as professionals, will have to pay customs duties.

Finally, the Covid-19 could well further complicate the round trips between Paris and London, note the specialists.

If France and the European Union ban British citizens from coming to their soil due to health measures linked to the pandemic, the United Kingdom will most likely do the same.

Delivering goods to the UK: traffic jams in sight

To best anticipate a lack of agreement, the European Union presented on Thursday emergency measures which aim, among other things, to maintain connectivity in road and air transport, for six months, provided that London does the same .

But the British government has already hinted that it will not accept them.

These new controls, which will apply to the transport of goods, should cause queues of French and European trucks at the border, since they will require the implementation of significant logistics.

And the country is already getting a taste of it.

On Wednesday, monster traffic jams stretched for kilometers to and from the English port of Dover.

Generally speaking, ports have been congested and supply circuits disrupted for several weeks.

The

Financial Times

reports that the UK government has even already planned huge emergency parking lots and permits to enter the Kent region near the Port of Dover to anticipate disruptions expected from January 1.

For Brexit specialists, despite the shadow of the "no deal", the United Kingdom will seek to obtain concessions from the European Union until Sunday, the last deadline to bring these negotiations to a successful conclusion.

Even if it means giving up on a smooth transition?