The coronavirus has already reached almost every country in the world.
Most governments have imposed restrictions that have reduced activity to try to contain the virus.
To follow the evolution of the pandemic, we analyzed three variables:
mobility
, the rate of growth of the virus (R), its incidence –cases reported in 14 days and per 100,000 inhabitants– and the level of risk.
To define the color of each country we use a traffic light: high risk, when the incidence is greater than 150 cases, medium risk, when it exceeds 50 cases, and low risk when the incidence is less.
In this first graph we show the situation in 24 countries since June, when infections began to be better measured (below we show the evolution since the beginning of the pandemic).
Country-by-country incidence
The following table shows, for each country, the confirmed cases since the beginning of the pandemic, the incidence –in the last 14 days and per 100,000 inhabitants– and the change in the level of contagion in the last two weeks.
The color of the bar on the right shows the level of incidence in each country since the start of the pandemic.
The deceased in each country
The second wave has swelled the death toll at an even worse rate than that of the spring.
In mid-September the first million official deaths were exceeded.
Since August there have been more deaths from coronavirus on all continents than in previous months.
The following table shows the total number of registered deaths, also per 100,000 inhabitants and the change in the last 14 days.
Methodology and sources
National data are from the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University.
For Spain we use data from the Ministry of Health.
The reproductive number R
.
To calculate the reproductive number of the virus at each moment we use the R EpiEstim package. For each country or region and day we consider the absolute daily increase in cases and deaths in each place in the last seven days.
We assume a mean time between infections of 4.7 days with a standard deviation of 2.9, similar to that of this study from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine.
Mobility
.
To measure the functioning of society we use two sources of aggregated and anonymized mobility data: those provided by Google and Apple.
Google data is published in your mobility report.
They detail the movements of people going to different places (supermarkets, work, stations, parks, etc.).
It is the same information that the search engine uses to measure peak hours on sites.
Apple is publishing each day the variation in walking and driving trips for Apple Maps users.
To calculate our indicator, we calculate a weighted average where Google has the greatest weight: its data includes the displacements of users who use Android mobiles, while those of Apple only those who use the Maps application.
Luís Sevillano Pires has collaborated in the elaboration of the map.