Germany has been in a tough corona lockdown since mid-December.
Many ask themselves: Are the measures already having an effect?
Germany has been in a tough Corona *
lockdown
since mid-December
.
Now statisticians have published an
explosive forecast
.
Are the
measures
decided
already having an effect?
Kassel - At the beginning of November
all restaurants in Germany
closed with the start of the
“Lockdown light
”.
Chancellor Angela Merkel (CDU) and the country leaders tightened the corona rules before
Christmas
and
New Year's Eve
.
The country has been in a
tough lockdown
since mid-December
.
Most of the retail trade is closed.
Hairdressers and cosmetic studios are tight.
School lessons are severely restricted.
Lockdown in Germany: Are the corona measures already having an effect?
Many people in Germany are now asking themselves:
What are the effects of the Corona measures already?
Statisticians from the Ludwig Maximilians University (LMU) in Munich have updated the number of cases precisely.
Your forecasts are sobering.
Covid-19 pandemic |
|
|---|---|
illness |
Covid-19 |
Pathogens |
SARS-CoV-2 |
Pandemic statement |
March 11, 2020 |
Affected countries |
Over 200 |
The
preliminary result
of Professors Göran Kauermann and Helmut Küchenhoff from LMÜ Munich is: No statements can yet be made about the effectiveness of the December lockdown.
Corona numbers had already decreased before the "lockdown light"
In a previous survey, the scientists calculated that the
corona
infection had
slowed down
even before the
“lockdown light
”.
In other words: the
corona
numbers had dropped before the restaurants had to close.
In the following statistics it is said that the
number of new
corona
infections increased "up to December 8th".
They do not yet want to judge the development after this point in time "due to the incubation period and reporting delay".
One thing is certain, however: Many people who
have been infected
with
Corona
in the past few weeks
will not survive the disease.
The resolved
corona
measures would not change anything - even if they were effective now and the number of infections fell.
Statisticians make corona forecast: Thousands of deaths suspected
The scientists predict: Of all people who
were reported
as
corona cases
in calendar week 51 (between December 14 and 20)
, over 6,500 will not survive.
The number of deaths has risen steadily in the past few weeks (mid-November to early December).
This is shown by the statisticians' calculations.
The reason for the constant increase: The
massively increased number of cases
in the group of over 80-year-olds who are particularly hard hit by the coronavirus.
Corona situation in Thuringia and Brandenburg is getting worse
In addition, the researchers predict how many people who recently
tested
positive for
Corona will
not survive
the disease
.
Since the "time span between a positive test result and the fatal end of the disease" could be six weeks, the statisticians use the number of infections to predict that in Saxony "about
60 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants
can be expected" - comparatively very high values.
The
corona situation is also
getting
worse
in other federal states such as
Thuringia
and
Brandenburg
.
"Overall, the federal states of Saxony, Thuringia and Brandenburg show an approximately three times higher mortality rate at the end of the year than most of the other federal states," the report says.
In other federal states, the number of deaths would not develop in this way, according to statisticians.
The measures taken could
already have an effect there
.
But that can only be said in the coming days.
(Jan Wendt)
* hna.de is part of the nationwide Ippen-Digital editorial network.