Foresee this exercise so complex in times of Covid-19.
Last December 15 in the columns of the Parisian, the president of the Scientific Council, Jean-Claude Delfraissy, still asked the French for some efforts and gave himself "until the end of April, or even May, to immunize the 22 million most at risk" .
Two weeks later, this projection is no longer frankly relevant.
Despite the effervescence of the first vaccinations, the government is playing the card of caution and posting more modest objectives.
The 15 million most fragile people, targeted in phase 1 and 2, should receive their double dose by "the summer", according to the expression used Saturday by Matignon.
The first million elderly people and caregivers located in nursing homes would be reached at the end of February.
“It's not a 100-meter vaccination, it's a marathon.
We are not late, ”we whisper to the Ministry of Health, which is already seeing criticism of the ambitions displayed abroad.
Already 490,000 Israelis, 800,000 Britons and more than two million Americans have indeed been administered the German-American vaccine, according to the group of data analysts Our World in Data.
On the first two days, only about fifty people were vaccinated in France.
“We made the choice of progressivity because we are facing a very skeptical population.
We prefer to accumulate evidence before massively opening vaccination to the French, ”adds one in the entourage of Olivier Véran.
A capacity to vaccinate 27 million people by July 1 according to the ministry
In summary, the doses will be there in due time according to the phases, we promise, but no question of rushing.
In the short term, 500,000 Pfizer doses are expected this week as well as the next two, according to the same source.
The minister's office adds that nearly 67.9 of the 200 million doses allocated to France as part of the European order will be available by July 1.
That is to say a real capacity to vaccinate nearly 27 million people, including in particular the losses linked to multidose packaging and any hiccups in the cold chain.
As since the start of the epidemic, the exercise of comparisons with foreign countries is in fact confronted with numerous biases.
First, the delay observed with the United States, Israel, China or Russia is explained above all by the precaution adopted by the European Medicines Agency (EMA) in the process of marketing authorization for vaccines. .
Pfizer's product has been validated in the European Union two to three weeks after its neighbors across the Atlantic and across the Channel.
The answer for Moderna is scheduled for January 6.
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On the other hand, the questions seem more justified if we look at the rate of vaccination among the members of the EU, given that the orders were carried out collectively and in proportion to the population.
Germany, much faster to start, ensures that it will have three to four million doses by the end of January.
Spain indicates for its part to be able to vaccinate 2.5 million people by the end of February, 15 to 20 million of its fellow citizens by May or June.
And why not "70% of its population" next summer, according to the Minister of Health Salvador Illa.
Questioned on the subject, the Ministry of Health refuses to comment on the strategy of its neighbors.
"It's good that we are not going faster"
These criticisms of a lagging France in any case annoy the infectious disease specialist of the Grenoble Alpes CHU Olivier Epaulard.
The latter participated in the development of the vaccine strategy within the High Authority for Health (HAS).
“It doesn't shock me about this adjustment.
Vaccinate a quarter of the population to properly protect people at risk, this has never been done before, argues the Grenoblois.
The Pfizer vaccine is effective but there are still many unknowns and we knew it.
In particular on the delivery of doses, and on the physical implementation of vaccination in nursing homes and then outside.
"
Some supply glitches have also affected eight European countries at the end of December, the Spanish government said on Monday.
Blame it on a failure in a Pfizer warehouse in Belgium.
A break in the cold chain also disrupted vaccination at several German sites in Bavaria and Berlin.
“It's good that we're not going faster.
To give oneself the time to do things very well in terms of efficiency, safety and organization is the right way to go, ”said Monday evening on Europe 1 Alain Fischer, the very cautious“ Mr. vaccine ” of the government.
"Some of our neighbors have chosen to vaccinate health professionals first, so a greater number of people in a hospital center".
These adjustments from one country to another will appear "derisory" in two or three months, he assured.
The official calendar as presented in early December
Jean-Paul Stahl, former head of department in Grenoble and ex-president of the French-language Infectious Pathology Society (SPILF), also calls on us not to confuse “order announcements and what we actually have in stock” .
He "laughs" at the Spanish promises: "We could have said ten million vaccinated at the end of winter, too.
But we have to confront the reality of the number of doses available, ”he thunders.
Still uncertainties around other vaccines ordered by the EU
Progress of laboratories, approval by health agencies, potential adverse effects ... In recent months, the State has frequently recalled the "great uncertainty" that hovered over its vaccination schedule.
The problems encountered by the AstraZeneca and Sanofi-GSK laboratories in their phase 3 represent one of the main concerns.
These two vaccines are believed to significantly enhance the immunization capacity.
That of AstraZeneca in particular generates a lot of hope because it is inexpensive and does not need to be stored at very low temperature.
A launch on the market in March seems possible for this one, judging by the optimism of the last press releases.
Johnson & Johnson (Janssen) and CureVac products could land in late spring or early summer.
But nothing should be expected from Sanofi before the last quarter of 2021.
Whatever the reason for potential setbacks, the top of the State risks having to quickly communicate on its stock and its reactivity.
The threat of a third wave, especially in the east of the country, looms more than ever.
In Nice, where the number of positive cases is skyrocketing again, Mayor Christian Estrosi is calling for the vaccination program in the Alpes-Maritimes to be brought forward by eight days and to be applied immediately.