Can two hours change the course of an epidemic?
Tuesday, the Minister of Health Olivier Véran dismissed the track of a reconfinement in favor of another, envisaged by the executive for January 2: the establishment of a curfew from 6 p.m., at currently at 8 p.m., in part of the east of the country to contain the Covid-19 epidemic.
While it has proven its effectiveness in the past, the curfew can also have counterproductive effects, experts say.
9 p.m., 8 p.m., and now 6 p.m.
France has known for several months the establishment of several curfews to fight against the Covid-19 epidemic.
If this measure is being studied again, it is because it has shown good results in the past, according to the recent conclusions of a study by Public Health France.
READ ALSO>
Curfew advanced at 6 pm: “The nursery will close earlier?
It turns my whole life upside down!
"
“The purpose of curfews is to limit contact with other people outside our homes.
So obviously the more we advance the curfew, the more we limit these contacts, ”recalls Pascal Crépey, epidemiologist.
But the measure has not always been fully understood.
“We heard a lot of people say at the time of the first curfew
yes but the virus does not come out just in the evening.
The logic is not that, indeed the virus does not come out until 6 pm.
But we have contact with our fellows at these times.
Avoiding these contacts at such times also means avoiding the risk of being contaminated, ”emphasizes the specialist.
"The most determined will continue to meet"
Many unknowns reside, in particular on the ability of the French not to circumvent the rules of this curfew.
“The most determined will continue to meet.
They will meet sooner, will potentially remain in place, in rather small spaces if we consider that these behaviors will be adopted by the youngest ”, fears Mircea T. Sofonea, lecturer in epidemiology and evolution of infectious diseases in the university of Montpellier.
“With these two hours, we may not gain a lot from a health point of view.
I fear that the epidemic reduction that will result from this restriction will be insufficient.
The epidemic is already out of control.
Simply, its effects remain imperceptible, ”continues the expert.
“An early 6pm curfew won't change much.
This will annoy people and will not greatly reduce the number of people who cross paths, and who become contaminated, ”says Catherine Hill, epidemiologist.
Local confinement demanded by elected officials
Should it go further, and confine locally as the elected officials have been calling for several days?
"I would have liked that we were able to […] take advantage of this holiday period […] to be able to achieve a form of confinement", for example declared on France Info the president (LR) of the Grand-Est region, Jean Rottner.
"Isn't that likely to make us fall behind and therefore see this epidemic pass again and run behind?"
He asked himself.
Morning essentials newsletter
A tour of the news to start the day
Subscribe to the newsletterAll newsletters
Not for Catherine Hill.
According to the epidemiologist, it is especially necessary to test massively.
“And not to carry out the experiments carried out in Charleville or Le Havre where we managed to test 20% of the population.
It's like having rats in a building and sending pest controlers to every fifth floor.
It's useless and it's very expensive, ”she says.
Pascal Crépey calls for a certain caution.
“The first thing is that you should already have a good reading of the dynamics of the epidemic.
This is not the case today.
The relatively early indicators that we have, the positive tests, fall victim to the success of the antigenic tests in the period before Christmas.
Their interpretation can be biased.
The number of hospitalizations remains stable, we must remain cautious and not sound the alarm too early.
It should nevertheless be remembered that the circulation of the virus remains sustained and that alone can justify measures, ”according to the epidemiologist.
Questions about the start of the school year
The fact remains that the frenzy of Christmas shopping, the holidays and with them the closure of schools, as well as the decongestion of public transport currently make it possible to limit contamination.
"In doubt, we could say as
much to apply additional measures
, but what we forget is that we are already in a form of semi-confinement," recalls Pascal Crépey.
Likewise, applying the potential restrictions to the entire territory would not make sense, according to the specialist.
"If we are in an increasing phase of the virus, we do not sufficiently control the epidemic and that justifies taking measures.
But there is no point in taking generalized measures if the traffic is weak and decreasing elsewhere, ”he notes.
The start of the school year, which should take place "normally" according to the executive, raises many questions. "Won't the reopening of schools and the return to work help to boost contamination? The question remains open but it will also depend on our collective behavior ”, asks Pascal Crépey.