After the irreducible Gauls, place for the irreducible Costalorians?
Since the announcements made on Wednesday evening on the France 2 News by the Minister of Health Olivier Véran, many are those who, on social networks, are surprised to see the Côte d'Or as spared from future health restrictions.
For good reason, the department is the only one in the Bourgogne Franche-Comté region to escape at this stage with the advance of the curfew hour next Saturday, at 6 p.m., if the epidemic situation does not improve.
READ ALSO>
Follow live the latest information on the health crisis
Another pocket of resistance seems to be forming in the Grand-Est region, where the Bas-Rhin department is also an exception.
It remains to be seen whether or not these decisions can be explained from an epidemiological point of view and whether they may have been influenced by political considerations.
The big comeback of the territorial response
In his interview granted on December 27 to the Journal du Dimanche, Olivier Véran took care to leave wide open the hypothesis of the third general confinement.
“We never rule out measures that may be necessary to protect populations.
That does not mean that we have decided, but that we observe the situation hour by hour, ”he explained at the time.
Three days later, at the end of a defense council bringing together a good part of the government, this lead was finally not retained.
Or not yet.
With the curfew advanced to 6 p.m., the government opted for differentiated measures at the departmental level.
“The epidemic situation shows that we are stagnating on a rather high plateau and therefore quite uncomfortable, develops his entourage.
But the territorial disparities are strong, with the departments more affected in the east of the country and more spared in the west.
This is what motivated our choice.
We have never forbidden ourselves the differentiated response.
We have already implemented it in the past.
"
A relevant strategy?
The joint epidemiologists do not question the very principle of the territorialized response.
Pascal Crepey, researcher, teacher and epidemiologist at the École des Hautes Etudes en santé publique in Rennes, sees it as an efficient response to an epidemic affecting the territory unevenly.
“Two indicators are important: circulation, high or low, and dynamics, increasing or decreasing, he explains.
If we are in an increasing phase, we do not sufficiently control the epidemic and this justifies taking measures in a territory.
But there's no point in taking widespread action if traffic is light and decreasing elsewhere.
"
Mircea T. Sofonea, lecturer in epidemiology and evolution of infectious diseases at the University of Montpellier, abounds.
“There is no point in trying to nationally control an epidemic that is spreading locally.
There is no point in cracking down on areas where the epidemic is under control.
Rather, a strong, localized and short-lived response should be favored ... As long as you are early.
If we wait to feel the epidemic wave, it's lost.
"
What criteria has the government adopted?
He rightly believes that the government has already delayed too long.
“We took too long to react when the epidemic resumed in Marseille,” he continues.
The media widely relayed the words of reassurance people at the end of the summer and we were unable to anticipate the second wave.
This time again, the epidemic is already no longer under control.
"
How were the 20 departments affected by the 6 p.m. curfew chosen?
In government, we explain relying on figures.
"We targeted the departments in which the incidence rate exceeded 200 new cases per 100,000 inhabitants on the overall population and / or those over 65," explains Olivier Véran's office.
Morning essentials newsletter
A tour of the news to start the day
Subscribe to the newsletterAll newsletters
The services of the Ministry of Health explain that they were based on the figures of December 26, made public three days later.
The Côte d'Or then had an incidence of 186 on the overall population (-15% over 7 days), more than in Yonne or Saône-et-Loire.
According to the elements collected by Le Parisien, it was 189 for those over 65 (-34.9% over 7 days).
Questionable figures?
It remains that the dynamics and the sharp declines thus observed on the incidence in Côte d'Or and elsewhere are perhaps, if not doubtless, biased.
Before the Christmas holidays, the French indeed rushed on PCR tests before joining their relatives.
READ ALSO>
Why the number of tests explodes as the holidays approach
Mechanically, the increase in the number of tests carried out resulted in an increase in incidence rates before the holidays.
The more we test, the more new cases we find.
Conversely, test positivity rates have tended to decline.
"We are fully aware of the impact of the increase in tests, responds the Ministry of Health.
We know she was able to create a draft and reduce positivity rates, which are directly related to them.
We will be vigilant as to future developments, ”adds one, without excluding an update of the map of the departments concerned by the anticipated curfew.
According to the figures available on December 30 (for the period from December 21 to 27), the incidence rate in Côte d'Or still shows a drop for all ages, to just over 183. But according to our information, the rate On the other hand, the incidence would go back to 194 among those over 65.
Very close to the famous threshold of 200. This is the limit of statistics based on the volume of tests carried out, which do not necessarily fully reflect the epidemic reality in the country.
Such a political decision?
The days preceding the announcements of Olivier Véran, François Rebsamen, mayor of Dijon (prefecture of Côte d'Or and capital of the Bourgogne Franche Comté region), asked to wait before "toughening the confinement".
Conversely, the mayor of Nice Christian Estrosi sounded the alarm to demand new restrictions.
How does the executive take these complaints into account?
Within the executive, we like to defend the principle of consultation, with the ARS, the prefects but also the mayors, before decision-making.
“When you have worried elected officials, you must take it into account, confess one in the entourage of the Minister of Health.
But the appeal of elected officials is only a reflection of the health situation in the country.
The basis for the decision remains the epidemic situation.
"
At Le Parisien, François Rebsamen says he felt an Olivier Véran listening.
“I had a long discussion with him before the defense council,” he explains.
He wanted to know what I was feeling and to take the pulse of the population.
I told him that if he asked me my opinion, I felt a real fed up in Dijon and I suggested that he wait before acting ”.
A decisive phone call in the government's decision to remove the Côte d'Or from the list of departments affected by the 6 p.m. curfew?
"It would be pretentious of me to say that," retorts the former socialist minister.
But I still think that if he had not called me, the entire Bourgogne Franche-Comté region would have been concerned.
"