"The next three or four months will be dark - we are still in the tunnel, but there is a light at the end of the tunnel."
Tom Rothman, president of American film giant Sony Pictures Entertainment, gave a bit of hope to moviegoers around the world this week in the Hollywood trade press.
While 2020 has been an economic disaster for the film industry around the world, the strategy of the major American studios for 2021 will be decisive: the industry is affected from its first reel to its last chair.
Usual locomotives of world cinema, the great Hollywood films have paid an even higher price than the others this year for the Covid-19 crisis.
Thus, in France, there were only three works in 2020 that crossed the symbolic bar of 2 million admissions.
And these are all the same three blockbusters: "Tenet" by Christopher Nolan (2.3 million admissions), "1917" by Sam Mendes (2.2 million) and "Sonic" by Jeff Fowler (2.1 million) .
The biggest successes of the year were Hollywood but, overall, French films recorded a smaller decline (-60.7%) than American (-76.7%) or other nationalities (- 69.4%), according to the CNC which delivered its annual report on Wednesday.
What strategy for Hollywood?
What strategy then, for 2021, for Hollywood?
The slogan seems to be common to all the major studios: we must save the cinema soldier!
For business players across the Atlantic, the global box office is bound to recover - although in this dark period, 65% of American and Canadian movie theaters are closed, according to Comscore, as well as several markets. keys like Los Angeles, New York City, London, and of course France.
The recent release of "Wonder Woman 1984" in the United States, after a postponement in September, in parallel with its broadcast on the HBO Max platform, provided two proofs to the cinema giants: the big screen still works with 85 million dollars of (overall) revenue in two weekends in a more than small market.
In 2019, "Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker" generated $ 32 million on Christmas Day, by way of comparison ...
Another observation: platform subscriptions will not compensate for revenues from cinemas in the near future, even if Warner has not officially communicated on new subscribers to their online video platform, HBO Max.
Broadcasting directly on platforms is therefore not the Alpha and Omega of the future of world cinema.
A finding that Marc-Olivier Sebbag, general delegate of the Federation of French Cinemas, also makes.
"These strategies are ultimately few and limited, Disney has promised to limit itself to two films, the president of the entertainment giant recalled that it would never do without the box office", notes the representative of the hexagonal rooms, for which the future releases of the big studios will obviously be the locomotives of a recovery.
"Nothing replaces the cinema hall in terms of cultural values, but also financial"
“Warner, for
WW 1984,
limited his strategic choice to only 2021 and to the United States.
Why ?
Nothing replaces the movie theater in terms of cultural values, but also financial.
We must put the power of platforms into perspective, ”analyzes this connoisseur.
Because despite the expected decrease in attendance, movie theaters remain a powerful formula that is bearing fruit in terms of revenue.
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"It is absolutely essential that the films land in theaters, otherwise they will also lose a lot of their value on the secondary market, broadcast on VOD or conventional television", adds the general delegate.
“Films should not be locked into one mode of exploitation.
All operating modes must be taken into account, ”he said.
We can estimate that it will take four to six months for the Covid-19 to decline thanks to the vaccines, and for cinemas to reopen at full capacity.
The producers have therefore chosen to postpone their big releases until spring 2021, to be in the right calendar window.
But rather than solo launches, it is a squadron of blockbusters which should mark the return of the dark rooms on the front of the scene: “Morbius” of Sony on March 19, “No time To Die”, the new James Bond (MGM), April 2 and finally “Black Widow” (Disney / Marvel) on May 7.
In all, 19 studio films scheduled between February 26 and early May across the Atlantic.
Something to satisfy a craving audience.
An "event" of the outings which should benefit everyone, if we are to believe the observers.
A future where platforms and cinemas will coexist
“Artists will always want to make films that have a cultural impact;
the movies that are in a movie theater and have a worldwide release are the ones that have such an impact.
The public will always want to go, ”said Tom Rothman, president of Sony Pictures Entertainment, in support of this strategy.
In this murky context, some have anticipated a future where platforms and cinemas will coexist.
Thus, NBC / Universal has negotiated a plan to reduce theatrical operating time with the American regulatory authorities, which could well become the industry standard: 17 theatrical days for all titles including theatrical opening is less than $ 50 million, before switching to video-on-demand, and a theatrical runtime of 31 days for films with an opening greater than $ 50 million.
A win-win plan, a priori.
In France, we are studying the American situation carefully, even if the context is different, the operators still being closed.
“Our concern is to reopen our rooms as quickly as possible.
We are targeting the end of January, and we are negotiating with the public authorities in this regard, ”recalls Marc-Olivier Sebbag on the future of French cinemas.
“The problem of the stock of films, and the way in which we can display them, is another of our concerns.
Each film must be able to find its place, otherwise the entire industry is in danger ”.