Following the spread of the new strain of corona virus across the country, we spoke with disease spread experts - who warned of its consequences • "More contagious in children"
Corona test
Photography:
Joshua Joseph, Archive
According to the health system, the British mutation is already spreading in the country, mainly in ultra-Orthodox and Arab concentrations.
Following public concerns, we turned to health care experts, asking them about the spread of the mutation and the differences between it and the corona strain that has already spread across the country since the plague broke out in March last year.
Prof. Nadav Davidovich, head of the Public Health School at Ben-Gurion University and a member of the government advisory team on the Corona issue, noted that the British mutation seems to be more contagious, and probably also more contagious among children.
"At the moment, the mutation still needs to be researched and tested, but what is growing is the suspicion that the mutation is 50 percent more contagious. And not only is it more contagious, but it is also more contagious in children. This means first of all the opening of schools. "This is a mutation that infects children much more, because it is more difficult to open schools because the virus will spread through them to families and the rest of the public."
Prof. Davidovich added: "Beyond that, it is important to say that once there is mass infection in children, there is also an increase in severe cases among children. For even if the vast majority of children easily pass the plague, it is still one percent or half percent or even less. "Yes, they will start in a difficult way - and this will be a big jump in the number of children who are seriously ill and must prepare for this situation."
What should we do now?
Prof. Davidovich clarifies that when it comes to dealing with the mutation, Israel is not in a good place in relation to the rest of the world.
"First of all, Israel lags behind the world in laboratories for public health and genetic flooring, which is really not good. The issue has been neglected here for years, and in the event of an epidemic, these laboratories can sequence the virus' genome and see what its mutation is. Now the country has awakened and started investing in these laboratories.
Netanyahu on the British Mutation, Archive
"It is true that this is an expensive project, but it is intended to maintain public health. In our case, what needs to be done is to enter the outbreak centers in a sample and sequence the genome of the virus in those centers. On places with a stronger or more contagious mutation and stop it.
"In general, it should be understood that if this mutation is really 50 percent more contagious, and it is also contagious in children, then it changes all the preparations in front of it in the country and requires wider closures and closure of the various systems," concludes Prof. Davidovich.
The mutation is responsible for the jump in the coefficient of infection
Professor Dror Mevorach, director of the corona department at Hadassah Ein Kerem Hospital, explained that the mutation has so far dramatically increased the rate of infection and that unfortunately it is already in Israel.
And said that it leads to the need for a comprehensive closure, and perhaps even closure of the education system.
"Initially, the British reported that the mutation rate of the mutation was 70 percent higher than the primary virus. They were based on models that examined the spread of the epidemic where the mutation was found. Today, global estimates speak of between 20 and 70 percent more than the original virus. To say that the mutation is around 50 percent more contagious than the initial version of the virus. "
Mevorach stressed that the data means that the coefficient of infection increases.
"If one person used to infect one person, now one person actually statistically infects a person and a half, so the R (infection factor) jumps and the rate of epidemic spread in the population increases. Beyond that, at the moment it is quite clear that the mutation exists "It is also already in the general public." Unfortunately, not enough genetic sequencing has been done so far to know where there are areas with the mutation, which is a pity.
Are the reports that she is contagious in children also true?
"According to the British reports, the mutation is indeed more contagious even among children. In other words, even if we close the economy and the schools continue to operate, the mutation will continue to spread because of education frameworks. So there is probably no choice but to go for a closer general closure. "Education at this stage is an explanation that the mutation is more contagious by about 50 percent, although it is not clear whether it is also more suitable for infecting children, or whether the increase among them is due to the high percentage of infection."
Prof. Ronit Calderon-Margalit, from the Hebrew University School of Public Health, notes that the mutation is 50 percent more contagious. But despite the surprising figure, what interests her more, and which has not been decided at this stage, is whether its widespread occurrence among children is due to its suitability. Infect more children.
There is no escape from the hermetic locksmith
Prof. Calderon-Margalit emphasized that "the fact that there is a much more contagious version here is a fact, it is contagious at the level of 50 percent. What is worrying and has not yet been decided is the question of whether it is also more suitable for infecting children. In that case, the spread among children will intensify quickly. "It can still be argued that children become more infected because once there are more patients, also in terms of percentages, the children also become infected naturally. In any case, at the moment there is no escape from a comprehensive and hermetic locksmith. The situation is one of rapid spread of the plague."
She goes on to emphasize that the nature of vaccinations should be streamlined.
"What worries me more is the reality of irresponsibility in giving vaccines to young people, it is mandatory to focus only on risk groups at the moment. There are 1.46 million people in Israel aged 60 and over, and they should reach a level of over 60 percent vaccinated and not vaccinate anyone who arrives when they arrive. ", Especially when there may be a shortage of vaccines. It is not possible that I see young people getting vaccinated everywhere and there is a leakage of the vaccine to people who are not in the risk group. It is not responsible because the whole vaccine is to prevent mortality and serious diseases," she said.
