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Experts believe that the coronavirus advances in the AMBA as it did in May

2021-01-06T09:47:06.691Z


Infections skyrocketed in December. Why the scenario in the city and province of Buenos Aires looks like half a year ago.


Irene Hartmann

01/06/2021 6:01 AM

  • Clarín.com

  • Society

Updated 01/06/2021 6:01 AM

“The

triphasic dynamics

of Argentina

seems to be repeating itself

: first, coronavirus cases rise in the AMBA.

In the second instance, in the interior of the province of Buenos Aires.

And in a third instance, in the interior of the country ”.

Javier Farina

, infectious disease doctor of the Argentine Society of Infectious Diseases (SADI), described and predicted what already in these early days of 2021 translates into a dense collective silence.

It is not a

déjà vu

or a sensation:

repetition happens

.

As for the speed at which the new infected each day is doubled, in the metropolitan radio scenes similar to those of 

May and June are experienced

.

There are many variables to measure the pandemic.

To justify the comparative bridge proposed in these lines, it is good to see the

doubling time of new cases

.

That is, consider within how many days we will have, in a single day, twice as many cases that, for example, will be reported this Tuesday.

The result will speak to the

pace

at which the pandemic is advancing.

As is known from experience, the problem is the

tolerance of the health system

.

It is not the same to fill a bottle with water in comfortable drops than to do it with a vigorous and abundant jet.

For Farina, the situation in Buenos Aires today (this Monday there were more than a thousand cases in a single day) is

comparable to that of the end of April or the beginning of May.

To see it "you can calculate the percentage increase week by week, always taking the average of the last seven days", in order to avoid accidental ups and downs, product of variables that hinder the analysis: delays in data uploads and irregularity of the number of daily tests, among others.

“In other words, we would have to see the percentage in which positive cases increase, according to the weekly average.

In the last weeks,

in the city of Buenos Aires it was more than 200 percent

”, Farina reinforced.

Pre-Christmas tour of the Once neighborhood.

Photo: Andres D'Elía

If there is an obvious difference with the end of the first semester of last year, it is that now "

we do not start from zero but from thousands,

" said the infectologist, referring to the very high base of the curve, symbolized in the (already) 1,648,940 positive Covid cases and the 43,375 deaths that were recorded in Argentina at the end of this note.

In other words, “the inclination of the curve and the rate of increase of cases is, in the AMBA, very similar to those of April-May,

with the difference that we already have hospitalized patients

, with which the final number, the occupation of general beds and critical care is already going to be higher.

This is what worries a little. "

Rodrigo Quiroga

, a chemist from the National University of Córdoba and a Conicet researcher specialized in drug development, molecular biology and bioinformatics,

agreed with this perspective

.

However, although he pointed out that "in terms of doubling time we are similar to the situation at the end of May, the beginning of June", he made a reservation: and it is that now it is being

tested "much better

, perhaps twice as much as in those months ".

By the way, another difference is that in the middle of last year, the protocol for determining a suspected case was very different from the current one.

Then, "the cases that came to light were the most severe, and were invisible, because they did not qualify for the test, very many mild and asymptomatic."

The increase in cases of coronavirus did not overshadow Christmas shopping on Avellaneda Avenue, in the Flores neighborhood.

Photo Juano Tesone

At the same time, it is fair to note that "the number of deaths or number of patients admitted to intensive care is now more or less half compared to that moment, which would indicate that we are not as serious as then."


But

none of these nuances discourage the urgent comparison

and the call to remember the learning of these months, especially when the horizon that several epidemiologists predict is that, at this rate, we will undoubtedly 

kick the same stone twice

.

Among the inscrutable truths that can be reported today is that coronavirus cases have grown steadily in the AMBA since the long weekend of December 8.

So, the city of Buenos Aires had 276 cases per day (average of the previous week).

Now, 795, almost a triplication that supposes a

doubling time of 16 days

.

Same as in May-June.

In the province of Buenos Aires, on December 7 there were 1,248 new daily cases and as of December 31 there were 2,921, a

doubling time of 20 days

, as occurred in June.

And returning

to Farina's "

triphasic dynamics

", at the national level things are more uncertain.

According to Quiroga, we are even in time to stop the proliferation of infections in the provinces, that is, to return to the doubling every 15 days that was seen in August and September.

Application of the Sputnik V vaccine to health professionals at the "Dr. Pedro Fiorito" Hospital, in the town of Avellaneda.

/ Xinhua / Martín Zabala

In national figures, Quiroga explained, "on December 7 there were 4,535 daily cases (average of the last seven days), and on the last day of 2020, 7,517."

In other words, the

doubling

time

today is

38 days

.

For the expert, it is a bit enigmatic why cases rise so emphatically in the AMBA and in the main cities of Latin America, which, like us, “are in the middle of summer”, as if “the flexibility of the people did not explain it everything".

Because, does anyone remember that the increase in the number of infected people in the AMBA was due to the lack of control in the "importation" of positive cases from abroad?

Not the case now ...

Quiroga does not want to rule out that the sudden rise is due in part to the collective relaxation, and in part to the fact that - as in Europe - some variant of the virus that supposes greater contagiousness is circulating, "perhaps the same one from Rio de Janeiro", as this

Clarín

week 

.

But, Quiroga said, beyond some additional phenomenon to the lack of care, “

protecting oneself and others is still absolutely central

.

If there were no relaxation in care, if there were no meetings with air conditioning without ventilation, people who do not wear chinstraps ... the cases would not be raised.

Relaxation may not explain everything, but it certainly does not help and is responsible for the increase in infections. "

GS

Look also

Health curfew: voices for and against the measure that is being evaluated to curb coronavirus infections

Coronavirus in Argentina: a genetic finding raises suspicions about a new mutation in the country

Source: clarin

All life articles on 2021-01-06

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