Of course, if he sticks to the raw figures, Jean-François Timsit does not have enough to ring the alarm bell.
In the intensive care unit he heads at the Parisian Bichat hospital, around two patients with the most serious forms of Covid are admitted per day, half less than in November, when the second confinement was decided.
But the doctor is not fooled: "he" will arrive, and will mathematically fill more sick beds.
"No reason that he does not take the hand soon," he slices.
In its viewfinder, B117, the English clone of the coronavirus detected for the first time in November in Great Britain.
The professor could even have said "they" and thus added 501.V2, another mutant, which appeared in South Africa and the subject of research by scientists.
The variant would contain more mutations on the Spike protein which allows the virus to attach to our cells.
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What we know about the South African variant that arrived in France
Qualified as "threats", "two variants worry us and mobilize us", insisted this Thursday evening Olivier Véran during the traditional press conference of Jean Castex.
"Not well known", says the Minister of Health, the South African strain has been detected in three patients in France.
Probably more contagious for adults as for children, the majority across the Channel where he is suspected of having worsened the epidemic, the Briton has been spotted in 19 cases in France.
Two clusters have been identified.
One concerning residents and staff in a geriatric center, near Rennes, in Brittany, a region until then relatively untouched by the epidemic.
The second - still under investigation - in Bagneux (Hauts-de-Seine) where it was brought to light by the test of a person working in two schools, and who was not returning from a trip.
This Friday, tells us the Ministry of Education, a screening will be offered to school staff and families who wish.
Analysis of "questionable" tests
So, of course, these strains "seem to be still not very widespread in our country", according to Jean Castex.
But, "we want at all costs to avoid their dissemination," assured Olivier Véran.
By limiting human interactions with England.
By mobilizing the laboratories in front of them.
Between this Thursday and this Friday, “all the doubtful PCR tests will be analyzed on our platforms […] making it possible to count the number of precise cases of variants for those days.
"
If the changes are not reassuring, it is because they are added to an already fragile and unstable situation on the front of the epidemic.
The R0 - which says how much a person will infect others - and the positivity rate are on the rise.
However, apart from the probable widening (the decision will be taken this Friday evening) of the curfew at 6 p.m. to ten new departments, including Yonne, Haut and Bas-Rhin or Bouches-du-Rhône - and confirmation for the bars and restaurants that they will not reopen before at least mid-February, France is suspended on the strengthening of the measures.
No third confinement announced or suggested even if the Prime Minister was clear: the measures could be reinforced "as soon as it is necessary.
"
"The restrictions are a tourniquet while waiting for the real surgery"
This is why Hélène Rossinot was a little “upset” this Thursday evening.
The public health doctor would have liked an encouragement to telework and the announcement of a "real protocol in schools.
"" The variant confirms what we have been asking for weeks: when a student is positive, the class must be temporarily closed and everyone tested!
"
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"At a minimum, equip teachers with CO2 sensors, spread the canteen over time, screen the children much more", abounds the epidemiologist Antoine Flahault, who would have been to him to lengthen a little the school holidays of December.
Concerned about a possible rebound in the epidemic, the professor assures him: “The earlier the measurements, the faster the results.
"" The restrictions are a tourniquet while waiting for the real surgery, recalls in the form of an image Hélène Rossinot.
All this does not go without a real boost to the vaccination campaign.
He was promised Thursday night.
It remains to implement it.